Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The 2017 Apr 07 attack on Stockholm, Sweden was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-05-07; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08.
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Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by clutetc on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-04-07.
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Szechuan sauce theory: Rick & Morty S3 to feature at least 3 distinct (non-S1&S2) merch (paid by other corps) across the season ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-01-01.
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Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-12-31.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Before 2018 I will put Persona 5 on my short list of favorite single-player games ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Residents of Cloister House will be able to return today ( 54% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-06; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-06.
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CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.
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We will have the new data layer and redux events in the data layer by the end of this sprint. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-05-24.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-08; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-08.
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Parents' loan payment > $1350 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 58% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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Certain friend will kill themselves this century ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 42% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the birds tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the mammals tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Japanese television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 32% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 47% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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I think i will learn how to make better predictions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by axl5073 on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by axl5073 on 2017-04-01.
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By 2017-04-16 Sun: I buy Olympic weightlifting shoes, squat shoes, or other shoes I deem similar (currently intended in plurality for squatting). ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-29.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, US – Constitutional option used to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, UK – Ken Livingstone is expelled from Labour as a result of the disciplinary hearing on his comments claiming Hitler supported Zionism. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-31; known on 2017-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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My tendon will be better in 3 months ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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Colbert stops being a late show host by August 2017 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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SpaceX – Launch using a reused first stage successfully lands the first stage again without destroying it. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.
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SpaceX – Launch using a reused first stage successfully delivers payload to orbit. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.
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I go to Burning Man 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. ( 7% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-04-28.
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Kel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by timujin on 2018-01-28.
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A Blizzard Classic hero to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 40% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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dm.am release complete with database migration from dungeonmaster.ru this year ( 30% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The San Francisco Bay Area will experience an earthquake in 2017 equal to or greater than that of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake ( magnitude 6.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent)) ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by custom on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Tech – The Samsung S8, as released, has no home button. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-03-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-29.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Wanda returns to Gobwin Knob during pages 247 to 250. ( 12% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-04-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-09.
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Tech – Google Hangouts shows a notification or message on opening the app on the 27th March in the US and/or UK directing users to switch to another app for SMS. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-25; known on 2017-03-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.
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At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.
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I go to the Digital Identity summit 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-10-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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Lula ou Dilma será preso / presa por conta da Lava-Jato ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by guisamora on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by guisamora on 2017-12-27.
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i think accountant will change their mind ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sesq on 2017-03-24; known on 2022-03-24; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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Sprouts is open till 10 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24.
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2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I consume < 50 kcal in my bedroom ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened). ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my clothes; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent 'homes'. ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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By 2017-04-30 Sun: I will have implemented (in my judgement) changes to supplement timings to try to improve absorption/bioavailability. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ethanbas will be indefinitely blocked from editing Wikipedia by the end of March ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01.
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There won't be more than two questions on the distinction between interval and ratio on Alex's test ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23.
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ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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Second date with R ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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Second date with J ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Second date with L ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-27.
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We will get out the first Airflow story to production this sprint. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-04; judged right by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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My application for the Mt Whitney Lottery will be accepted. ( 35% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-24.
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North Korea conducts nuclear test ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25.
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2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped then candidate Trump ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months ( 60% confidence )
Created by mala on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-09-20.
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Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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will get 100% on quiz ( 40% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-20.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Bad page state issue is caused by something else ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by recent Ubuntu LTS Linux 4.4 kernel patches ( 14% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by ZFS ( 6% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by BFQ patch ( 11% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by VMware Workstation ( 16% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by VirtualBox ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie turns barbarian as part of a strategy to neutralise Jillian. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie uses some variation on Eyemancy to neutralise Jillian. ( 13% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2018-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-11.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie uses some variation on Hippimancy to neutralise Jillian. ( 17% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-11.
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Technology – Microsoft implements a block on Windows 7 and/or Windows 8.1 accessing Windows Update while running on the the latest Intel and/or AMD processor architectures before the end of April 2017. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-14.
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Two+ dates in the next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-24.
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Date tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-18; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-18.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Politics, US – Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.