Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.
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1.5 trillion $ in war tribute extracted from Iraq in oil “profit sharing” agreement to the US ( 22% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2037-01-01.
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Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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get into AMF ( 20% confidence )
Created by jamesd0 on 2017-01-24; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by jamesd0 on 2017-03-06.
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REINS act signed into law ( 75% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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In 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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I will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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At least one PlayStation-level data breach. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-10.
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No verified quantum supremacy this year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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2016 will remain the hottest year on record. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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F-35 program will not be curtailed. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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TPP will not be ratified this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-05-23.
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US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Assad will remain President of Syria. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Joseph Kabila will not be in power. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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China will not enter recession this year. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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May's approval rating above 30% at year end. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No snap UK general election held this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-04-19.
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The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.
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There will be no public agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No second Scottish independence referendum announced in 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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AfD will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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PVV will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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Partij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Le Pen will lose the presidential election. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-07.
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Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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US will not withdraw from TTIP ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-23; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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I go to Hearst Castle this weekend ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-30.
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-07.
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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National Guard called in to shut down #WomensMarch, at least 1 dead ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-01-22; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
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Politics – President Trump signs an executive order reversing at least one of Obama's LGBT protection executive orders by the end of 2017-01-27. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-29.
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Politics – President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-25.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Berger tries to sacrifice the hostage in 16.10 or 16.11 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-28.
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Spaceflight, SpaceX – Falcon Heavy launch attempt made by the end of the second quarter 2017. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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Arrive in Santa Barbara before sunset tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-22; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Motorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Motorcycle crash on trip to San Diego ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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My boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-27.
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Lauri Love outlives the United States of America ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2150-01-01.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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large, existing firms that make medical devices will fail to make inroads on marketshare % of wearable health devices wrt small disruptors ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-12-31.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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Politics – Julian Assange travels to the US consensually within 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-18; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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War involving either active troop deployments from/fighting in all of: US, UK, China, At least one Scandinavian country, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-12-31.
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compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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FTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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FTSE 100 over 7,000 on July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by penten on 2017-07-03.