Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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Median score on the Putnam this year is >= 5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-04; known on 2017-03-31; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
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Trump will nominate Romney ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michael149 on 2016-12-02; known on 2016-12-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-14.
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What is today known as the 2016 Oct Surkov leaks will be generally agreed to have been the result of a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-12-01; known on 2066-12-02.
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LP feeling generally happier about S than this week ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-15; judged right by penten on 2016-12-15.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2026-11-28.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax ( 3% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still alive ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Zak Goldsmith will win Richmond Park by election on 1dec2016. ( 92% confidence )
Created by CLARENCETHEANGEL on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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The Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018 ( 90% confidence )
Created by DaFranker on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-07-02; judged right by DaFranker on 2018-07-02.
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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By the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by murrlong on 2016-11-29; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by olimay on 2020-02-01.
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I will eat a sandwich for lunch tomorrow ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by epm5108@psu.edu on 2016-11-29; known on 2016-11-29.
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Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will be returned before 2017-01-15 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-03.
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I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-11-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2018-05-26.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” and Calvin Harris and Rihanna's “This Is What You Came For”will be the only two YouTube videos released in 2016 that have over a billion views. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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As of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-04.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 10, 2016. ( 91% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 3, 2016. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be fewer than 50 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be at least 40 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-07.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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Arnaud Montebourg wins french left wing primary. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2017-01-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Francois Hollande to enter french presidential race ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-23; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-12-01.
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Fillon wins french right wing primary ( 80% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
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1360-80 in SAT practice test C ( 80% confidence )
Created by rishika on 2016-11-21; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by rishika on 2016-11-23.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
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kinshana is a typo ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-20.
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Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-24.
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Salted__²ð~½)©çï>Û£ÆB˜¢ª©9ÝmàIŒ~gþ®ëÎÌakðÄä×h…Ho&rÕ4¤@^K@N›æJË >2gà,ai<ùå, ǬèÞ†ŸVÖß ç1ûǶ£7Ó›TiQÐèàc}^¬=8“Dò.u2 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20; judged wrong by AP107138 on 2017-11-25.
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Salted__aÀ_>—é 䃊p4ìÕÔ‹?‚)ciÅÑ0=ZÌ—±B¤ºÑö£l‚wKÌĺDZ¦Xù˜¹Û¸c?ó—Ýc>ÅŒ§%Ñ{E#ã¶`WÓÑÕŠä^¼ÙB’àu¶ÂZ‘KÐaa1qpµÙ°¿ÊŒ·fK D~S ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20.
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Salted__DË'}) q×ɸÆ2%ÙH”Ãôf4MwCÊ=»Ò“QÆ{PKÈ2œ³Ó¨†ÍÈüÑ=6¸®!ö»Ogšb€K5$ÆÙðjs[ÖØ%DOÒŒ9T•SØÆxä^ ›IQ/7,ê©Ò!¸•€¡—Ï£N•¶„,ócg3÷g ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20.
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CR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-06.
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US Election 2018: Number of Democrats in House of Representatives win < 95 seats ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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AMZN is under 1000 per share through 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by hensen on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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(@AudaciousEpigon or @Inductivist) gets suspended by twitter in 2017 along with at least one more HBD-associated with account. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-02-11.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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I didn't just lose bitcoin ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-16; known on 2016-11-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18.
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I will see fm this winter ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-16; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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over 20 people show up ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-11-16; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-16.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day). ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-24.
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Used iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-23 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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Cisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Samsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Second Dell server will not need to be returned within a week ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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rn will respond before 2016-11-22 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-22.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Any candidate runs under the banner of the Party of Reason and Progress (PORP), at any level in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14; known on 2018-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – In 15.3, we get confirmation that the chief members of the Rank have cooperated. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-15.
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Politics, India – It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by michael149 on 2016-12-02.
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Amazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
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Waterstones removes the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Jillian confirmed to be attacking Gobwin Knob with no visible presence of Charlescomm within pages 212 or 213. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-11-19.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30.
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Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer “More than 50%” to my Google Surveys question “What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?” ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15.
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Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-29.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation “m” type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-02.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.
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The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.
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TPP Passes in US (specifically through lame duck president Obama) ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.