PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Wikileaks get shame-labelled as fake news by NSA/Facebook ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
Books 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
ATF Elimination Act passes ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
alexa/siri/ok google/their competitor have better conversational skills ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Trump Inauguration has lower ratings than or between Obama and Bush Inauguration ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are “not legislatable” or logically impossible ( 87% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
2 or more of { US, Russia, China } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Somebody does something “really cool” with augmented reality ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
human beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
first bipedal soldiers deployed are russian made ( 17% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Somebody causes fire, augmented reality to blame ( 37% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
Legislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality. ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
Facebook caught labelling website as “fake news” for saying negative things about Facebook. ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2027-01-08.
Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
Trump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-20.
new landlord accepts tenancy agreement ( 89% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-01-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
Ethan will leave Def hacks() before it is over ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15.
Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material ( 14% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2026-01-01.
Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.
Technology – OnePlus releases a further bug fix update for the OnePlus 3 before the end of January. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-21.
Fiction, Webseries, Twig – In 16.7, the leader orders an attack on Sy. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-14.
Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Best says some variation on “thank you”, within pages 10-12 ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-21.
Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie goes to TV within pages 227-230. ( 35% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-28.
AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-02-28.
Obamacare repeal on Jan 11/12, 2017 that occurred defeated before it goes into effect ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-07-01.
First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by penten on 2017-06-01.
>= 267 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13350ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
>= 270 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13500ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
>= 246 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
>= 249 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12450ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
application for renting the place on peter st turned down ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
2016 Q4 books post published by end of this weekend ( 70% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-16.
I go to Bolinas this weekend ( 60% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-15.
No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.
At least one card from the MtG sets Aether Revolt or Amonkhet will get banned in Standard. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Roxolan on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2018-01-01.
Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages ( 55% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
I will not be able to find a place, and will be forced to move back to saskatoon ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
SpaceX makes a successful launch before the end of January 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-14.
I will get that elective surgery before the end of June. ( 70% confidence )

Created by imaxwell on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2017-04-21.
Donald Trump administration names china Currency Manipulator ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19.
No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.
US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Dow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 50% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
No agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017 ( 90% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.