Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
Mammophant embryo created successfully ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-20; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
-
Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
Quantcast will continue to show visits and pageviews data for Stack Overflow till the end of 2017. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
Weekday ridership at the Fremont BART will decline once the Warm Springs / South Fremont BART becomes operational, as judged by Vipul Naik based on data at http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-04.
-
Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
-
Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
-
Facebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
-
Facebook will report more than 1.3 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
-
SpaceX makes a successful launch on 2017-02-19. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-19.
-
UK – No deal between RMT and Southern Rail ending the dispute over the role of guards on trains reached by end of March 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
-
Fiction, Webseries, Twig – The Lambs leave without a fight during 17.6 or 17.7. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-02-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-02-26.
-
Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie goes through a portal within pages 237 to 240 inclusive. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-03-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-02-26.
-
Politics, US – A Trump nominee for a position requiring confirmation withdraws their nomination, fails to get confirmed, or later resigns before the end of March 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
-
Trump gives another solo press conference in February 2017 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-17; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
-
1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
-
0% corporate tax in US ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
-
I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
-
Transcripts or recordings of conversations between Trump campaign staffers & Russian citizens are published (or linked to) in the New York Times by July 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
-
altyn currency of at least 2 countries ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-16; known on 2025-12-31.
-
UKIP will win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-02-24.
-
“Logan” rotten tomatoes aggregate score is < 80% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-15; known on 2017-03-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-15.
-
Age-adjusted mortality rate in men from lung cancer in England/Wales <= 400/million (as reported by ONS — 2015: 704, 2001: 963) ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-02-15; known on 2027-02-15.
-
New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-15; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
-
Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known on 2022-02-14.
-
I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
-
My brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-02-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-20.
-
Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.
-
No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by February 1 2018 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-02-01.
-
No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by December 1 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
-
No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by July 1 2017 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
-
There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-13; known on 2020-01-20; judged wrong by regex on 2020-01-22.
-
Mike Flynn (Michael T. Flynn) will not be the National Security Advisor before the end of 2017. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-14.
-
Trump executive order on immigration will not be in force on April 15, 2017 in an unmodified form. ( 80% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-04-15.
-
Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
-
>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.
-
Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
-
I go on three or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
-
I go on two or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
-
Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
-
5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
-
I purchase a computer in 2017 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
-
Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.
-
By adding support for JS unit testing, we expect the feature test suite duration to drop by 30s–1min (by replacing the sign up specs) on CI ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Wes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2017-03-21.
-
I go on at least one date from 2017-02-06 to 2017-03-01 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
-
Arrival wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
-
Hacksaw Ridge wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 10% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
-
Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020 ( 29% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
-
Trump announces somewhere that he eventually won the “Muslim ban” court fight ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
-
PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04.
-
CPC implements UBI ( 24% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-02-15.
-
More than 40% of SSC17 answerees self-identify in the top 30% right end of the scale ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-03-17.
-
Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged right by penten on 2017-02-27.
-
La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
-
By ensuring that the other two teams can focus on their objective by dealing with “forced move” stories, we expect PPD for other two teams to go up between 0.1 to 0.25. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-02.
-
“the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
class on time ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by elephantower on 2017-02-02.
-
The Dow goes above 20k again on Feb 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rmeador on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by rmeador on 2017-02-01.
-
The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
-
The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag on Wikipedia will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
-
6+ pomos this day ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2017-02-02.
-
Trump will nominate Steve Bannon to the Supreme Court. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-01.
-
There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
-
User “npcuck” will go to Sakura-Con ( 6% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-31; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-17.
-
A year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of “The Nix” ( 55% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-30.
-
A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30.
-
Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
-
Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
-
Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders dual nationals with citizenship both of a nationality barred from entering and of a non-barred nationality to be permitted to enter by end of 2017-02-05. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-06.
-
Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-11.
-
Politics – President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2017-02-06.
-
Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Nationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01.
-
Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01.
-
Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
-
Deportations in 2018 up > 50% vs 2016 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
-
Dodd-Frank fully or almost fully repealed by US midterm elections. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
-
ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
-
Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
-
QRVO loses share on the iPhone ( 31% confidence )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2017-06-01.
-
QRVO gains share on the iPhone ( 35% confidence )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2017-06-01.
-
EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-12-31.
-
One of Scott Gottleib, Jim O’Neill, or Balaji Srinavasan become FDA commissioner by April 1st 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
-
2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
A LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2020-01-01.
-
Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
-
Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
-
“Link posts” will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
door shutting ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-01-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-26.
-
Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.