Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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English is Gab's second language. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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Politics, US – A bill repealing and/or replacing the ACA passes Congress by the end of May. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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As of January 1, 2018, there will be at least five songs with over a billion streams each on Spotify. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-11.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 4 billion views. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12.
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As of January 1, 2020, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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As of January 1, 2019, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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Something else breaks in test 1 ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Palemoon breaks first in test 1. ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Steem breaks first in test 1. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Tech – Juicero brings out a new bag design which is clearly harder to hand-squeeze by the end of 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Politics, UK – A spokesperson for the Government states that it intends to retain freedom of movement with the EU, by the end of June 2017. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-18.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Tech – Google announces that they are adding some form of ad blocking feature to Chrome before the end of May 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Politics, UK – An MP or an agent of an MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Politics, UK – An MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Politics, US – 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-22.
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Politics, US – Tennessee Senate passes bill permitting drivers to put “In God We Trust” on their license plates by the end of April 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, UK – A new Labour leadership election is announced before the end of June 2017. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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Fox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-19.
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10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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Russia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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United apologizes for conflict with engaged couple ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-05-01.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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I will go to the seder tonight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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I will manage to get into ketosis at least once by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-05-31; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-03.
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I will have moved to the UK by this August. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Warriors will win NBA championship ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-24.
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buy machines embodying improved TFP = diminishing marginal returns to capital ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-06-15.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by June 1 2017 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by May 1, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >100 million views by May 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down) ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-31.
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Will discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-16.
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Tech – FaceApp is revealed to send data from USB storage unrelated to its core functionality to the cloud before the end of May 2017. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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illidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-10.
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China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Velvet Scarlatina will appear in Season 2 of RWBY Chibi, voiced by Caiti Ward. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-27.
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Three or more dates in the next 10 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-24.
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I drop out of the ultraworking pentathlon ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-25.
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Ubuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer “Hedy” will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13.
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Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2037-01-01.
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Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-12; known on 2074-01-01.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 3017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-07-16.
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The TDT gambit will work and upon smelling the stains Jess will message me the colour of her パンツ if she is wearing them or “nayki wayki” &c if she is not. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will retrieve my passport today. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will visit the storage facility today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will sleep with (meaning we will at least lay next to each other on her bed while we touch each other) Jess within the next two hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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I will kiss Jess within one minute ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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3 total announcements by announcement guy in community episode 2. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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Gold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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I will visit Jess today. (Before [17.4.11.23.59.PST].) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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I will visit Jess by [17.4.11.18.00.PST] today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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I will be able to complete `Move EdiNordstrom orders behind a cutover to new Trading` story within estimate ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Joy on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Joy on 2017-04-12.
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TPO Mobile (The People's Operator) shutters operations before the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by thekohser on 2017-04-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by thekohser on 2018-01-01.
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Go to the bank today. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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Go to CVS today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-10; known on 2022-12-31.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST]. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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The Great Barrier Reef will be 90 % bleached by 2025. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10.
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Haskell dick (author of a textbook) is male. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-10; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-09.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's “estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher” than it was in 2008 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-09; known on 2028-05-30.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump has a higher approval rating as of latest polls by Friday the 14th of April than he had on the 5th of April. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-15.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09] ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-23.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09] ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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The 8chan board /ratanon/ is back up with or without earlier posts by the end of the 14th of April 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-15.
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UK – Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, Europe – Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Syria – Further Western strikes occur on Syrian Arab Army targets before the end of May 2017. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Syria – A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Syria – Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Debian outlives Ubuntu as a project. Ubuntu 'ceases to exist' or 'gets bought out and no longer offers FLOSS OS' or 'ceases all development' while Debian remains active ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-08; known on 2037-01-02.