Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Macron will win the French 2020 elections ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-06.
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Everything in Amazon delivery will be here tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-17.
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bet with sam: there are 350-450 calories in a full watermelon ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16.
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Politics, UK – Someone in a firm or government, including local government, resigns on or before the 15th of August in connection to errors made in connection to the Grenfell Tower fire. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-30.
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Politics, UK – Arrests made in connection to an investigation into the Grenfell Tower fire before 15th of June 2018. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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Draupadi Murmu will be nominated for the presidency by the BJP ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-08-31.
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my social media activity will get me fired this summer ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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I will have read 70% of the chapters of the biography before July. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2017-06-14; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2017-07-01.
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Before 2018, Bret Weinstein will be banned (even temporarily) from Patreon for “hate speech” ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Community, EA – Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.
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The first run tomorrow (June 13) for NNP succeeds ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-11.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2021-06-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 2.00x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1×5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: 5×5 overhead press @ bodyweight (measured immediately before first set) ( 43% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: I have a bout ((chess)boxing, MMA, kickboxing, or otherwise) (amateur, white collar, pro, or otherwise). ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb). ( 18% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb). ( 31% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb). ( 47% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 65.0kg (143.3lb). ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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It actually does, in fact, storm today here ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] A ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] B ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] C ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] Below B ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] B ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] D ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] F ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] B ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] C ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] A ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-06-22; judged right by penten on 2017-06-23.
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Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017 ( 19% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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Labour finish on 280+ in #GE2007 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-07-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-07.
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US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May resigns before the end of the 9th of June 2017. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-10.
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Politics, US – Financial Choice Act is passed by the US House of Representatives before the end of June. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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Anita Sarkeesian has read the Qur'an ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-09.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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I feel happier an more relaxed on Friday 9th than I did on Wednesday 7th June (slight anxiety) ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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60 Bluechip Cryptocurrencies with individual market caps of over $100million would have existed by this point ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nve on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Nve on 2017-12-31.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-20.
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Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $450 new in the US. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-20.
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JD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20.
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Someone in the ID will win the US Powerball lottery (and I hear about it) by the end of 6 July ( 0% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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JD and I will successfully deliver the contracted work by the 14 June client deadline ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 85% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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70 tests, chi-square on {days of wearing sunglasses,I have headache the next day} results in a statistically significant relationship at p=0.05 level ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-12-31.
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Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Peteris on 2019-06-05.
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Merlon intelligence will reach a billion dollar valuation in 5 years ( 20% confidence )
Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known on 2022-06-05.
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I manage to upgrade to ubuntu 17.10 on my main machine to a booting system including emacs, bitcoin, web browser ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-05; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Person renting apartment will misgender me? Maybe? ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-04; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan July payment > $1400 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan July payment > $999 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-11.
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Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2021-06-03.
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Penn Jillette will get high for charity by the end of 2018. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2056-12-31.
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I will leave work on or before 6:00pm every day this week. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-14.
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Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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Moore's law stops ; transistor count on intel CPUs/GPUs hasn't doubled in 18 months ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Yelp (website) will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/yelp.com ( 43% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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ServerFault will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/serverfault.com ( 59% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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Stack Overflow will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/stackoverflow.com ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before July 1, 2017. ( 64% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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Shape of You will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-06.
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Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 42% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 42% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.