Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Created by Pablo on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-15.
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The company I am interning at will hire Ildar ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-24.
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The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-07.
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The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.
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Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13.
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I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-09-22.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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Fox News cuts ties with Eric Bolling ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-09.
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US Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-10.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-06.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament Finals is Reborn vs Oxygen ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-05.
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Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-27; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-08-27.
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TWOPENCES is in the most recent North American Scrabble dictionary ( 90% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-03; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2019-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-12-30.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2018-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-01-07.
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Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2028-06-01.
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Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2023-06-01.
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Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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Arianespace Vega Aug. 1 or 2 Optsat 3000 & Venus launches successfully ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-02.
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I have illness ( 50% confidence )
Created by cml5814 on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives before next Monday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-02.
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Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Personal, Business Interactions – I receive a gift card or cash card containing a signup bonus from BT sometime before the end of September 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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GoT: Glevba naq Wnvzr ner erirnyrq gb unir orra pbafcvevat gbtrgure. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-07-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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Despacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-23.
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Despacito will reach 3 billion YouTube video views on or before September 1, 2017, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 3 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-09-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-04.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT's refund emails actually correspond to a refund arriving in my bank account before the end of the 4th of August 2017. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Both backups fail ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05.
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My supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-27; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Habidatum supervisors will tell me to switch to social graph project #personal ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-28; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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I am currently doing the “Convict Conditioning” training program. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-07-26; known on 2018-07-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2018-07-23.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.
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They don't serve a meal on the plane ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-26.
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Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 ( 51% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-09-06.
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Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea tests another ICBM within one week ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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The fresh scar on my leg will be healed in 2 weeks ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-08-10.
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My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will lose 5 lbs by the end of September (updated: wrote kg, but meant lbs…oops) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.
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Productivity – I am still trying to using Worksnaps at due date such that I wish to continue paying for it. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2018-01-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-26.
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USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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GoT : Fnzjryy Gneyl xvyyrq va frnfba 7 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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Matt will have submitted his app to the store by August 15. ( 50% confidence )
Created by cmessinger on 2017-07-23; known on 2017-08-15.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Personal, Business Interactions – I actually have my Internet connection being served by BT before the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by iCrown on 2018-01-19.
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Politics, Italy – C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-07-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-30.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, US – General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Business, UK – Boots reduces price on a version of Levonelle (including generic or non-branded) to below £20 before the 1st of September 2017. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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ETC forks in relation to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/183982 before ETH ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.
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I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-10-15; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-26.
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I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-15; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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http://saneoualhadath.me ( 0% confidence )
Created by saneoualhadath on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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I will get married before 30 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2030-09-09.
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I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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July 14 Soyuz Kanopus-V-IK launches successfully ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-14.
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I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-13; known on 2030-12-31.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-12-23.
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Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.
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Joni will find the fact that I love this site funny, but unsurprising ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10; known on 2017-07-10; judged right by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10.
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I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-13.
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Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-24.