Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Generals back down; Mugabe is freed and goes back to de facto ruling the country. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2027-12-31.
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Blue Planet II to reuse more footage without explicitly mentioning it. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-01-08.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.
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I will get A in my SRA 311 class ( 90% confidence )
Created by donjon on 2017-11-13; known on 2017-12-16.
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The cubs will not win the 2018 world series ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mattdraghi on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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I will win the lottery ( 0% confidence )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2017-11-13.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Business, UK – Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Politics, US – Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2017-12-11.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Politics, Lebanon – Saad Hariri returns to Lebanon by the end of 2017-11-25. ( 45% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-11-26; judged right by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
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Personal, Business Interactions – Openreach engineer actually shows up at my property on 2017-11-09 between 8AM and 1PM per booking. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-08; known on 2017-11-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-09.
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Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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I will become a famous singer ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Uisaria on 2017-11-06; known on 2027-11-06.
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There will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by xzvf on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by xzvf on 2018-12-21.
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Cmydd gsvv gbsdo k lvyqzycd drkd bopoboxmoc wkdobskv lbyeqrd ez sx wi zycd lopybo dro oxn yp dro iokb ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-11-06; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB. ( 39% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-05; known on 2022-01-02.
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Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2021-01-02.
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Data published by Cisco in 2018 or 2019 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2018 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 151 EB. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-02.
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A bot will win in a series of Starcraft 2 games against human professional (anyone from Top 100 Leaderboard) using visual API similar to pysc2 https://github.com/deepmind/pysc2 by the end of year 2019 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tsepaka on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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python-ethereum makes it into ubuntu ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2017-12-31.
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ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2019-12-31.
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ARCA Space will fail to reach its goal of a flight in 2018. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 2x fork is the sole surviving chain, or core doubles the block size. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-09.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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STOCK- the US equity market will experience a mini-crash by the end of 2017 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by juncholi on 2017-10-30; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Flenser on 2018-02-09.
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Celgene stock will rise by 5% in 2017 ( 70% confidence )
Created by juncholi on 2017-10-30; known on 2017-12-31.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-05. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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I was the target of the legal request LQDN got yesterday ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-28; known on 2017-12-31.
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AMD's stock hits $20 ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2017-10-27; known on 2018-05-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-05-16.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Created by crabman on 2017-10-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-06-01.
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Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by missbethann on 2017-10-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-05.
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The final episode of the Israeli TV series Metumtemet (“Dumb”) is coming soon. I predict that either the Ethiopian police officer or her suspended partner will fail to survive. Probably the partner. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nosnivel on 2017-10-25; known on 2017-10-29; judged wrong by nosnivel on 2017-10-29.
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resource booker updated ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-24; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-10-24.
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No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known on 2022-10-24.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area ( 25% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I will do my strength and flexibility exercises on 2017-10-22. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-22.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-11-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-28.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of seeing whether a Prediction Book user is banned or not ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-21; known on 2037-10-21.
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Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
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Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-26.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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ADN testing will confirm that the body found last Tuesday in Chubut, Argentina is Santiago Maldonado's. ( 68% confidence )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-22.
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Esteban Bullrich's Cambiemos will obtain more votes than Cristina Kirchner's Union Ciudadana in the Argentine elections this Sunday, reverting the previous result in the PASO elections. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-24.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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The payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully. ( 57% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2017-12-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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Rocket Labs 'Still Testing' Electron rocket launch will successfully deploy it's payloads in a stable orbit. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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ANTI-ANTIFA PROTEST regina cancelled ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17; known on 2017-11-05.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Catalonia “clarifies” one way or the other by 6am spain time thursday ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2017-10-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Packers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-02-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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The Philippines still dealing with dawla al islamyya ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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larry flynt pays out 10m$ ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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http://alamalsayarat.com ( 10% confidence )
Created by alamal1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2017-10-14.
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Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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Created by gringer on 2017-10-12; known on 2018-12-31.
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Created by gringer on 2017-10-12; known on 2018-12-31.
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Created by gringer on 2017-10-12; known on 2018-12-31.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.
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permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-12-31.
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The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
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As of the end of 2017, J and K will have decided to move to India indefinitely ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-01-01.
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Trump decertifies Iran nuclear deal ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-11-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-10-14.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 6 billion views. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 5 billion views. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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Donald Trump renegotiates US foreign debt ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Main bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-02-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.