PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.

Business, US – Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.

My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School ( 60% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-12.

EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-08-07; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-08.

When I ask DW, he will tell me that he did successfully submit an EA Grant by the deadline. ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-07-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.

During my Cincinnati to Chicago bus trip, my plant will tip over and lose soil or otherwise get damaged. ( 50% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-06.

Space X July 5 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e launches successfully ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-06.

EA, Animal Welfare – Animal Charity Evaluators recommends Direct Action Everywhere by the end of 2017. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.

New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.

I get my damage deposit back for my apartment (conditional on moving out / deadline extended as needed) ( 11% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-03; known on 2018-12-31.

August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.

August payment of parents loan > $1400 ( 70% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.

[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches and lands successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.

[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Shape Of You ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] See You Again ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released before June 1, 2017, that is not in the above list ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released on or after June 1, 2017 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-30.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between August 1 and August 31, 2017 ( 25% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-14.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] never ( 4% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between October 1 and December 31, 2017 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between July 1 and July 31, 2017 ( 55% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-02.

[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] on or after January 1, 2018 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.

Лизу позовут на оффлайн-собеседования в яндекс на интерна-ресерч-девелопера в 2017 #other_people ( 75% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.

Лизу-whaf позовут в ШАД (2017) ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.

[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Mack Meller ( 28% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.

[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Will Anderson ( 34% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.

[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Joey Mallick ( 23% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.

no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week. ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-05.

Politics, Venezuela – Oscar Perez found and captured by the government by the 6th of July. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.

Politics, Venezuela – Helicopter used in attack on Supreme Court is found before the 6th of July. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.

Crime, UK – Suspects arrested in connection to masked men who ransacked house in Robroyston, Glasgow by end of July, and there are media reports of this. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.

Politics, US – Congress calls Obama to testify under oath before the end of July 2017. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – Labour amendment to 2017 Queen's Speech relating to the public sector pay cap passes ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-29.

Ubuntu 17.10 released ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.

The iPhone 8 will have a 120hz 'ProMotion' screen ( 50% confidence )

Created by Oliver Carefull on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Oliver Carefull on 2017-10-01.

The Uptake VIP tech event on 28 June will be >=90% male ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-06-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-28.

Vamos conseguir trabalhar na tradução do livro Doing Good Better do Will MacAskill ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by guisamora on 2017-06-26; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by guisamora on 2018-05-25.

There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.

[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.

[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches successfully ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.

Debian boots successfully without breaking Ubuntu or Linpus on Hedy (my laptop) ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25.

I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-09-21.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die ( 60% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus ( 45% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed by Kellhus. ( 10% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will be killed ( 30% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the Heron Spear will be used ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will find the Heron Spear. ( 35% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.

Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.

aljazeera shut down ( 6% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-23; known on 2017-07-04; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-04.

I have voted for the UK conservative party in a general election ( 55% confidence )

Created by penten on 2017-06-23; known on 2030-06-16.

Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-06-26; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-26.

If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-20.

I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-01.

iPhone SE 32GB will be returned within a week of receipt ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-26.

I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-20.

I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.

download time won't go back over 1 min ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by elephantower on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-06-20.

Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will step on Mars before I die ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2117-01-01.

I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 ( 40% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

today $ACTIVITY_W begins late and I show up early and end up wasting my time ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-19.

If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-08-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-18.

If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-19.

If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.

I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2025-06-13.

Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-25.

Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-12-31.

A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.

Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.

A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.

В этом году (2017) выйдет последняя книга цикла Веры Камши “Отблески Этерны” ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Alaric on 2018-01-04.

Сборная России выйдет из группы на Кубке Конфедераций ( 40% confidence )

Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.

Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно ( 35% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-22.

По истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.

China’s GDP for 2017-06-17 is at least 50% of sum of GDPs of all countries ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.

Начиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-24.

Я сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23 ( 35% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.

Слава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве ( 25% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.

В футбольном матче Россия-Новая Зеландия, который должен быть 2017-06-17, Россия победит не позже, чем 2017-06-23 ( 60% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-17.

Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.

курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by Alaric on 2017-06-24.

2017-06-16 Слава скажет, что додзе закончилось, до 22-30 включительно ( 30% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.

До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.

On 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-06-18.

No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.

Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.

Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-18.

Personal – I find my wallet ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-17.

Macron will complete his term successfully ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

Statistics

Recent Predictions