Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – At least one new Pixel phone is announced. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Trump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by Nve on 2017-05-18.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Ethan fails a class ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by npcuck on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-11.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Copyless Paste is announced as going to be integrated into Gboard. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-05-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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The nation source from which Trump leaked information about ISIS to Russia was either Israel or Jordan ( 85% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-16; known on 2067-05-16; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-16.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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cb95139af8cd20f1c3763ebfa7fd53e6 will come back safe and sound from her trip to america ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-13; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-14.
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Politics, US – Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, US – Flynn fulfills the requirements of the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee without challenging it in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, Iraq – Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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Politics, US – Representative of the FBI states the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump Campaign and the Russian Government has been closed by the 17th of June 2017. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-18.
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Politics, US – Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-19.
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Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-05-10; known on 2018-01-31.
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There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-08-10.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-24.
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Michael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-28.
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Politics, SJ – Everyday Feminism shuts down, or announces the scaling back of creating new articles by at least 50% due to funding constraints, before the end of June 2017 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Labour will win in Cambridge ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Midlothian ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham South. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham East. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham North. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Server “Aisha” upgrades to Ubuntu 17.10 to successful boot/apache/emacs ( 67% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Macron is going to select a prime minister ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Orian2 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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J shows up today as agreed ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-05-10.
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Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 ( 94% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-22; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble “But for another gives its ease”. ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-08.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-20.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least one of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove is removed by the end of the 20th of June, 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-12.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three remaining Confederacy monuments that Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the end of the 20th of June 2017. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-29.
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Politics, US – The Pentagon is confirmed to have agreed a lease or sublet of an apartment in Trump Tower in New York by a news outlet by the 14th of June 2017. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-15.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-18.
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Healthcare, UK – Dr Sunil Idicula Simon is struck off, or the process for striking them off is advanced towards a subsequent stage of review, at their hearing on the 2nd of June 2017. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-03.
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July 7, 2017 will live in infamy . ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by baltemose on 2017-05-06; known on 2017-07-07; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.
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McDonalds Germany will have served vegan burgers in their restaurants by the end of 2017. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by maxra on 2017-05-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by maxra on 2018-01-02.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $1200 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-02; known on 2027-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 17% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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I will keep to my self-imposed rules on T for six months, without cheating, bending the rules, or making any exceptions under any circumstances. ( 88% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-11-11.
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Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
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3-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin] ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-01; known on 2018-12-31.
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If North Korea has another underground nuclear explosion, it will result in an earthquake in the nearby Pacific rim. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tommy on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 73% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 58% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 73% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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W3C VCTF goes to CR ( 41% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-12-01.
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i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will have > 10,000 lines of Elixir before 2018 ( 87% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-17.
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I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-22; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-21.
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I will get at least 52 hours of sleep between now and next Sunday, as measured by the SleepCycle app I use on my phone. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-07.
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Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully lands the first stage of the NROL-76 launch, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully delivers NROL-76 to orbit, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms pass before the end of 2017-05-05. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-06.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $150 million in lifetime money raised as of March 1, 2018. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-04.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-10-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Fires started during the Berkeley protest today ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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Tear gas deployed in Berkeley today ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I go to DEFCON in July 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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The bill titled “The El Chapo Act” will be signed into law by Trump ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2017-10-01.
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https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 3000-01-01.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep between Sunday 23 April and Sunday 30 April. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-24; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-04-30.
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The message is from Em. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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President of France 2017 elections: Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party) won't make it past the first round ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Fillon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Macron makes to second round or wins on first round ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-24.
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Ron headcannons Skitter as a trans girl. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.