Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be noticeably worse. ( 52% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be resolved. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 19.6 – 20.5 inclusive. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 – 19.5 inclusive. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be working at my current company. ( 77% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have a baby (or be pregnant). ( 3% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will use work time tracking through Dec 31. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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Rousey beats Amanda Nunes ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-30; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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Section 702 renewed (or replaced with something that does roughly the same thing within 6 months) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-28; known on 2017-12-31.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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The UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-22; known on 2016-12-25.
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facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2025-07-22.
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Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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I read >13 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will read 2+ French books in 2017 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-03-07.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 39+2 weeks gestation ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) when I am greater than 39 weeks ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 12 months ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-12-21.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 6 months ( 49% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-21.
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I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21; judged right by penten on 2018-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged right by penten on 2017-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 6 months (current MI3W) ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-22.
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I will receive a coffee-related gift this Christmas ( 30% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged right by penten on 2016-12-25.
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I will receive beer as a present this Christmas ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will have given up alcohol by 1st Jan 2018 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I cycled to work at least twice in the last month. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by penten on 2017-05-01.
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S slept for an uninterrupted stretch of more than 4 hours between 9pm and 7am on 4 out of the 5 days previous to the prediction due date. ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged right by penten on 2017-02-21.
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President Jerry Brown ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Aaron will eat a sandwich for lunch today. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-07-02.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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1px borders still look good (always rendered as 1px) in non-integer-scaled Chrome in both 56 beta and 57 unstable, as of today ( 87% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18; known on 2016-12-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18.
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The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by VK7K7vg on 2016-12-18; known on 2056-12-18.
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Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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[SeveNeveS] Ng yrnfg 1 uhzna qrpraqrq sebz Ehshf' pebjq fheivirq gb N.4999 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.
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[SeveNeveS] – Znegvnaf Yvirq gb ng yrnfg +N.4999 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.
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Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for December 2016 than for December 2015. http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?tag=Countries&months0=201612&months1=201512&language=en&drilldown=desktop ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-16; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-16; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-31.
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At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Politics, US – Jim O'Neill announced as nominee for head of the FDA by Trump or a representative, by end of December 2016. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Dota 2 7.00: Divine Rapier damage increased ( 40% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Sentry Wards no longer purchased in pairs ( 30% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Heaven's Halberd cooldown reduced ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Dragon Lance agility and strength boost reduced ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: In-game HUD changed significantly ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Conceding possible in ranked matchmaking ( 2% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Necronomicon recipe cost reduced ( 40% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Wisdom stat added ( 5% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Damage dealt to buildings by illusions reduced ( 30% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: 2 new heroes added ( 20% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Guardian Greaves recipe cost reduced ( 60% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Aether Lens recipe cost reduced ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Arc Warden added to captains mode ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Underlord added to captains mode ( 90% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Disruption cooldown increased ( 60% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Disruption illusions damage taken increased ( 90% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Laguna Blade damage increased ( 30% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Moon Glaive no longer works on illusions ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike recipe cost increased ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike cooldown increased ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Outworld Devourer base armour or base damage reduced ( 75% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Iron Talon cost and damage to creeps on activation unchanged ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Politics, US – Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged right by Liron Shapira on 2016-12-15.
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Business, UK – A deal preventing further strike action is announced by South West Trains by the end of Friday 16th December 2016. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Bandit says at least one sentence to Ardaic within Chapter 45, Pages 19, 20, or 21. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-12-12.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Sy meets with Fray during 15.13 or 15.14 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-12-13.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Wanda gets the Arkenpliers back, in pages 219, 220, 221, or 222. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hedges on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-10.
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Replacement 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will have >= 0.1 more accurate gamma ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Replacement Dell 24" G-SYNC monitor will have the same vertical-striping issue ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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We will have a second child within 10 years ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-09.
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“White Christmas” (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-25.
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Turkey is served at the family Christmas dinner ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-26.
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Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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I'll recover from the flu enough to work on the 10th ( 70% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-10.
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Conditional on human beings being still alive, most of them will be on earth, whatever 'human being' and 'earth' mean in 3016 ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 3016-12-31.
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I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed ( 100% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 2100-01-01.
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I made top 200 on the Putnam. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-06; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
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My configuration management system will be deployed on at least one server before 2017 ( 91% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Survey of 40 random saskatchewanians (or whoever lives in that area in 2020) will reveal Brad Wall's tweet in 2016 as 'ridiculous' ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-05; known on 2020-11-22.