PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Barack Obama recognizes Palestine ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-12; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-20.

Test 4 – Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? ( 30% confidence )

Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by savolver on 2016-11-12.

Test 3. ( 90% confidence )

Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.

Test 2. ( 80% confidence )

Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.

The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.

I will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-26.

LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.

US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances ( 68% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.

China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.

#Calexit ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.

A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.

There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.

Wow. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-10; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-12.

President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.

2nd US civil war over, bernie sanders brokers peace ( 2% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.

obamacare repealed in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jal278 on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-11.

relocation to san francisco in 4 months ( 55% confidence )

Created by jal278 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-03-09; judged right by jal278 on 2017-01-01.

United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.

S is induced ( 50% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by penten on 2016-11-16.

We decide to change S's name in the next month ( 10% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.

We will buy more clothes for S within a month ( 70% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.

I will judge myself to be “very happy” next wednesday ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-16.

I will graduate MS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.

America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Obama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24.

homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

at least 2 political prisoners executed in US ( 84% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.

US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.

President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.

All three of my Amazon orders arrive before 8pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-10.

Fiction, Webseries, Twig – 15.2 is from the Lambs' perspective. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-14.

Personal – In my multiplayer game of Alpha Centauri with the other Rattumblrites, I (jbeshir) win. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-21.

Fiction, Webseries, RWBY – Yang puts on the prosthetic during Volume 4, Episode 4. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-11-21.

SpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 210 or 211. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-12.

Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2021-11-08.

i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.

Conditional on trying, I will successfully bench 200 pounds for one rep. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-12-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-10.

Clinton wins by 5 points or more. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Massacre at Standing Rock, >50 people killed 2 weeks after election results decided ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.

Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-06; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.

16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.

>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

redefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Construction of Musk Hyperloop will be ready for passengers by 2018 ( 3% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

Flamanville 3 reactor startup ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Mars Insight successfully lands on mars ( 31% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Children's Wish Foundation is wrong, they did give money to Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party ( 63% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-16.

I will be offered the position at PU EE. ( 62% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by olimay on 2016-11-04.

The Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election ( 64% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2016-12-02.

Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.

I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.

Clinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS ( 15% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-10.

AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. ( 28% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2026-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 ( 44% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

Instapaper has shut down by end 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-11-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2100-01-01.

Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2033-01-01.

>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

Upon finishing reading it, I will conclude that bill C-22, the text as of first reading, is a step in the right direction ( 47% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2016-12-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31.

S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.

LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2019-01-02.

zcash price is below 1 BTC ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

zcash price is below 0.4 BTC ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7 ( 12% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7 ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7 ( 18% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7 ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is > 7 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.

jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 25% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

github still exists ( 7% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

github still exists ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.

jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.

I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

I will match with anyone on Tinder who I can confirm is not a robot or scam or spam, before 2017 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-06.

Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.

Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 94 or 95. ( 10% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.

Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 208 or 209. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.

UK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.

Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Mauer is told about the Falconer's origin during 14.18 or 14.19 ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.

zcash price in bitcoin between [0.001, 500] BTC/ZEC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-28.

bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.

Zcash hacked / value goes to 0 before marketcap hits 1T$USD ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-28; known on 2070-01-01.

Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.

Statistics

Recent Predictions