Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Democrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Nick wrote the Bernie screed ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-13.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-08.
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Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020 ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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Murray will win Wimbledon ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-10; known on 2016-07-10; judged right by Waring on 2016-07-10.
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Complete lack of cheesecake. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-09; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-08; known on 2056-08-07.
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It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation ( 99% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-07-08.
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“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-10-01.
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From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-01-02.
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greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-04-01.
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DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other ( 45% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-25.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016. ( 55% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-01.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2017-05-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-17.
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2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2066-07-08.
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d33a499b544fa29f0554866ad2db2454 is in active labour during the Bitcoin Halvening ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-10.
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Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16.
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The Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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A motion to unbind delegates will be voted on by the full Republican convention ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Jenson on 2016-07-15.
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Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister of Australia. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-05; known on 2066-07-05.
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Trump will use donated money to pay off any portion of the loans he has made to his primary campaign ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-05; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-16.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-16.
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Kevin Durant will sign with the Thunder ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-04.
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Liam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Stephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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I go to Lalibela this summer ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-30; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-09-24.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election happening, Angela Eagle will enter ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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California will vote “yes” on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-06-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 4001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 3001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2901-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2801-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2701-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2601-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2401-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2301-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2201-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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The Conservative party will split ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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The Labour party will split ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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There will be a Labour leadership election as a result of the aftermath of Brexit vote ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Labour will not appoint a new shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 20% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint somebody who is not an elected politician as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 5% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MEP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MP representing a non-Scottish constituency as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MSP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 29% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint an SNP MP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 14% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-09-05.
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The Scottish Parliament will “veto” Brexit. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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(Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-26; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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Engaged MonJune27 – 45% opens, 2% clicks ( 70% confidence )
Created by polyopticon on 2016-06-26; known on 2016-06-28.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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commercial scale, “netpower” allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation ( 62% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-12-31.