[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100.

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01

• WilliamKiely estimated 8% on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2200: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178576” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2300: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178577” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2400: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178578” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2500: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178579” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2600: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178580” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2700: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178581” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2800: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178582” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “2900: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178583” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “3000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178584” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “4000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178585” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “5000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178586” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “6000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178587” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “7000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178588” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “8000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178589” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “9000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178590” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “10000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178591” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “20000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178592” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “100,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178593” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “1,000,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178594” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “10,000,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178595” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “1,000,000,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178597” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “10,000,000,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178598” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “100,000,000,000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178599” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “Forgot to link to 100,000,000 above: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178596” on 2016-06-29
• jesselevine said “Please enable a spam filter on your keyboard. An existential catastrophe would nullify your ability to judge this prediction and you will long be statistically dead before any of the others. Please consider making these private” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “http://www.existential-risk.org/” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_extinction” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely estimated 4% on 2016-06-30
• WilliamKiely said “Note: These predictions are conditional on the universe existing through the year 2100 (or the year X).” on 2016-06-30
• WilliamKiely said “I clarify this because technically the possibility that “We’re living in a simulation and it gets shut down” would qualify as an existential catastrophe. However, this possibility is something that I think should be considered separately.” on 2016-06-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 93% on 2016-07-02
• pranomostro estimated 35% and said “@TheMusicGod: That’s crazy high.” on 2019-03-15