Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01.
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The cure rate for persons diagnosed with mild/early Alzheimer's disease will exceed 20% ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2027-01-01.
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Manchester United will win no trophies in the 2016-2017 Season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03.
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SpaceX will launch a Dragon or Dragon-derived vehicle to the surface of Mars in the 2018 launch window. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by olivia on 2016-05-26; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-05-16.
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2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Someone will find an exception-throwing bug in one of the 5000 lines of the PredictionBook source code that I just deployed in the first week. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by Mike on 2016-05-28.
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Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known on 2023-06-01.
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I will submit my capstone project for accounting on the fourth Monday of June, 2016 ( 78% confidence )
Created by helldalgo on 2016-05-23; known on 2016-06-30.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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I am banned from Facebook ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.
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Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2066-01-01.
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New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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STD tests come back positive ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31.
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The DAO still exists / has a value of at least 1$ ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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“age of onset of 12 years” will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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GTA V to be on sale for under $30 on any day during 2016 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.
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Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.
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cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase average lifespan in dogs by 2026 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-17.
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Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 44% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2066-01-01.
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George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2045-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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2016 to be the warmest year ever ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-18.
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Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017 ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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>=1.6 million human genomes sequenced ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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Edward Snowden still stuck in Russia, or dead ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Liverpool will win against Sevilla ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-18.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Presidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República e exercerá seu mandato até o final. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-30.
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O processo de impeachment será concluído com o afastamento da presidente DR. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-19.
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Apple will eliminate charging cable ports and headphone jacks by the iPhone 8 release ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-05-17; known on 2017-11-17; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-10-03.
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Created by ioannes on 2016-05-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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I leave my job by the end of May 2016. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.
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I will get a first in at least three-quarters of my modules ( 35% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-15; known on 2016-09-20.
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The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2016-05-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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Atlassian shares will trade for $30 by June 1 2017. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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SKTechworks closes, moves to cheaper location, merges with another larger entity ( 59% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11; known on 2017-12-01.
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Trump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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HRC will take at least 280 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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HRC will take at least 330 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 55% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2027-01-01.
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DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2022-12-31.
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2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2020-01-21.
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I write Trump post-mortem piece by end of week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2041-01-01.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-05-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Kasich is Trump's VP pick ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton becomes president and the TPP passes executive approval in the US ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05.
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Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by F5 tornado ( 12% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by tornado ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Dr. V will ask about T2 mapping and what we're reporting about it. ( 95% confidence )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-05; judged wrong by docskalski on 2016-05-04.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton 100% mandatory evacuations due to fire ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Working system wherein VR/AR is actually presented to the user from within the nervous system ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2041-07-01.
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Sanders to upset Clinton in the Indiana primary ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04.
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'Some old coins will move, but they will only be “loosely” linked to Satoshi' ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Today, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2016-05-04.
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Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2018-06-01.