PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26.

I will read 52 or more books in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-18.

I will manage to invest in ZCash ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30.

Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-24; known on 2046-11-24.

Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya ( 44% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-24; known on 2026-10-25.

My configuration manager will be deployed on at least one server before 2016-11-15 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-24; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15.

Bob Dylan acknowledges his Nobel Prize in Literature in some fashion before the start of 2016-10-30 ( 8% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.

Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Falconer's bird is incapacitated or dies during 14.15 or 14.16 ( 50% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.

Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Best apologises or expresses regret to someone for something within pages 29-31. ( 28% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.

Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 92 or 93. ( 30% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.

Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 206 or 207. ( 30% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.

359 – 179 Clinton Trump Electoral Result ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.

Donald Trump will receive at least 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by igorhorst on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.

Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.

Lucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

I am still working at the same company as I was when making this prediction. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-20; known on 2017-10-20; judged right by penten on 2017-10-20.

Universal basic income will be an issue that comes up in the US 2020 election TV debates (primary or presidential) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Oliver Carefull on 2016-10-20; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by sole21000 on 2020-04-17.

Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now ( 31% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-18; known on 2026-10-18.

08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.

Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-21.

One week from today, I will weight less than or equal to 169 lbs ( 80% confidence )

Created by helldalgo on 2016-10-17; known on 2016-10-24.

Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16; known on 2016-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16.

One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-22; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-22.

Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-16.

Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-15; known on 2021-01-01.

I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-14; known on 2016-10-17; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-10-16.

Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.

I tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-06.

I make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-19.

S born after 1st November ( 60% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-01.

S born before 1st November ( 40% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-02.

Alex knows what the Monty Hall problem is ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13.

I will be banned from diasporg ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-11; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-12.

Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-10; known on 2066-10-10.

'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 ( 40% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.

It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.

Donald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by hoka on 2016-10-10; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-11-19.

In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10.

>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.

Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.

SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.

I will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer ( 28% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.

I will read 45 or more books in 2016 ( 91% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-22.

The orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2017-02-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-02-07.

I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-10-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-17.

I spend less than $900 next month. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.

I spend less than $1000 next month. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.

Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-12-30.

Haseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-06.

Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.

Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.

Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07.

I will visit Japan before 2019 ( 38% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

[LoL Worlds] NA team wins ( 18% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.

[LoL Worlds] Chinese team wins ( 16% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.

[LoL Worlds] Korean team wins ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.

[LoL Worlds] Albus NOX Luna makes it out of groups ( 30% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.

[LoL Worlds] At least one NA team makes it out of groups. ( 85% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.

Magic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01 ( 40% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.

No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.

No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.

I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2030-01-01.

I will have > 2000 lines of Elixir code before 2017 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-29.

My date with the pastry chef will be depressing ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2016-10-04; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-10-30.

I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

J will come into work tomorrow ( 92% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-05.

A will weigh more than me tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-19.

The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.

NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

China's Cap and Trade system still up and running ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2022-12-31.

The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.

3-4 “do everything” companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) ( 62% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.

I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-04; judged right by EliTyre on 2016-10-04.

attawapiskat diamond mind starts to wind down production ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.

I manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission ( 89% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-13.

US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Hiveswap will be released by the end of January 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TheCometKing on 2016-10-02; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by TheCometKing on 2017-02-01.

My next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-30.

On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.

On Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.

By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-01-01.

By 2018 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.

Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.

Statistics

Recent Predictions