[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S2 ( 20% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S1 ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] NKU ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] CM ( 40% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W5 ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W4 ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] OFR ( 99% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] SP ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

A US elected official or non-LEO civilian employee is killed by a Trump supporter in or near a government building ( 5% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

A US government building is occupied for more than three hours ( 3% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.

at least two government buildings in different states are occupied for at least an hour before jan 21st ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.

At least one bombing causes at least one death in the US before Jan 21st ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.

[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Someone else ( 1% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.

[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Norbert Röttgen ( 17% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.

[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Friedrich Merz ( 39% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.

There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27; judged wrong by kallman on 2022-01-01.

I have currently have COVID-19 and will have a fever or positive test within 10 days ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-15.

By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.

Mike Pence will certify Joe Biden’s electoral college victory on 6 January ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-05; known on 2021-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

COVID, UK – Scotland has a return to in-person education in schools before the start of February. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.

Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.

COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.

James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.

The U.S. will surpass 36 million confirmed COVID-19 cases by July 1, 2021 at 00:00 GMT, defined as total cases reported at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Luke on 2020-12-26; known on 2021-07-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-10.

in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Amaru on 2020-12-24; known on 2021-10-16; judged wrong by Amaru on 2022-11-29.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-07-27.

[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

I do at least 8 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 25% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.

I do at least 5 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 60% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.

A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

At least 2.9 million Americans will receive the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the first week of vaccinations (by December 19 at midnight EST) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Liface on 2020-12-11; known on 2020-12-20; judged wrong by Liface on 2020-12-21.

Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-05-12.

Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2023-03-21.

I currently have COVID-19 ( 6% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-12-03; known on 2020-12-17; judged wrong by technillogue on 2020-12-10.

Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.

I will be able to plan out a schedule for the week and stick to it ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-04.

I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by korakos on 2022-01-04.

Before the end of 2020, there will be at least one week (defined as 7 consecutive days) when I meditate on at least 5 days (defined as at least 30 minutes of total meditation time from 0am to 23:59pm). ( 50% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by korakos on 2021-01-01.

I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-01-06.

My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, ( 80% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2021-02-10; judged wrong by korakos on 2021-01-21.

Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.

The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-24.

Trump will have conceded defeat in the presidential election. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.

The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-24.

Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-18; known on 2020-11-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.

There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by Mendez on 2021-07-01.