PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10; judged right by htaussig on 2021-11-08.

Land a kickflip today ( 60% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-02-07; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-07.

My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )

Created by aarmai19 on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-03-16; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2021-04-16.

I'll still be sitting in this room in 1 minute. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-05.

I'm going to strength train (in the sense of completing 5 sets of some barbell exercise), when I wake up tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-10.

Personal, Productivity – I do two hours work for G by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-06.

I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by htaussig on 2021-11-08.

Personal, Productivity – I order replacement glasses by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-03; known on 2021-02-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-03.

Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.

Personal, Productivity – I sort out my wall calendar's labels by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-01; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.

Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-01.

COVID, UK – NHS recommends Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before deadline. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.

Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.

COVID, US – B117 to lock down ≥3M in US by 2021-03-11? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.

DOGE reaches $1 USD before 2021-02-14 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by azatris on 2021-02-15.

DOGE reaches 0.25 USD before 2021-02-14 ( 65% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-02-24.

GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.

VVD will not win 44 or more seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 82% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will not win exactly 42 or 43 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 80% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will not win exactly 40 or 41 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 77% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will not win exactly 38 or 39 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 85% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will not win exactly 36 or 37 seats n the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 90% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will not win exactly 34 or 35 seats n the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 92% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged wrong by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

VVD will get more than 33 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 94% confidence )

Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.

I'm going to get a second PPP loan. (Mainly because there are so many places to apply, it seems like one of them will come through? But on the other hand, I'm about a week late in applying and maybe the money is basically all spoken for?) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.

On reflection, I'll decide to talk to Tsvi tonight. ( 8% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-01-28; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-01-28.

Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.

Stellar Lumens (or any Asset on Stellar) will be my preferred means of payment for some transactions (e.g. one of but not limited to online purchases, rent, point of sale, etc.) ( 30% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

Matrix will be my preferred means of communication with a non-techie friend. They will either use a native matrix client or a service which natively federates with matrix (i.e. I won't need a bridge). ( 70% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.

COVID, UK – At least 17 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February 2021. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-02-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.

The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-22; known on 2025-01-20.

CA Gov Gavin Newsom will have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before March 31, 2022 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21; known on 2021-04-15; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.

19.12.1982 Solitärer fibröser Tumor myxoides Stroma/Hämangioperizytom Schwannom ( 60% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-01-27.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-12-17.

There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.

No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by D0TheMath on 2022-01-30.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.910 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.773 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.650 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] < .608 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] > $6.1 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] < $4.6 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

L frontal pilocytic astrocytoma MRN: 036220407 ( 70% confidence )

Created by mohalagha1987 on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-25.

[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.

[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.

[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 1-2 deaths ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.

[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 0 deaths ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.

The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.

There will be large scale rioting in US in early 2021 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-03-18; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-03-18.

The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.

Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.

In a year, Parler 0 will still be offline 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler ( 60% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.

Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.

Trump will not be convicted by the Senate before January 20th ( 99% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.

Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.

British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-07-24.

My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2022-01-01.

in bed (by promise definition) by 11.15pm on 16th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 11pm ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-17; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.

in bed (by promise definition) by 10.15pm on 17th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 10pm ( 90% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-18; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.

My average estimated sleep time for week of Jan 16th will be 8 hours or greater ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-23; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-25.

My daylio monthly average mood for Feb 2021 will be +0.5 or greater (on usual scoring system) ( 2% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.

I will make an appointment/ask to make an appointment with a therapist by 15th Feb 2021 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-11.

I will be in bed by 10.45pm tonight 15 Jan (according to definition I was using for promises, w/o the 'friends approve' exceptions), ( 30% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-16.

I will make at least 3 and resolve at least 3 predictions (on predictionbook or another prediction app/site) in each full week in feb ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.

convictions for attempted murders of at least three of {Republicans who voted to impeach, Georgia senators, Biden, Harris} before 2023 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

I will have 1 or more friend daylios with tyler in July of this year ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by iterate-again on 2022-01-01.

I will complete an AI based project which I can reasonably put on my CV for (computing) RA and internship apps by the start of sem 1 ( 35% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

an impeachment resolution against Biden is introduced before 2023 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

I will meet definition of 'literally homeless' at some point before December 30th 2022 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2022-12-30.

conditional on looking for a house with nico/sarah/noel, i will end up moving into one with them with $600 or lower rent ( 30% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] S2 ( 60% confidence )