Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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I will go one week without eating candy ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-22; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-25.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-01-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-10.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-11-25; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known 6 days ago.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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President Trump will stand down from the presidential office ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by BillEBrogan on 2020-11-12; known on 2020-11-13; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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European pharma companies do not have significantly lower profits than American pharma companies. (In 2019 or earlier) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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The US Military's $375M spending on robotics is less than the private sector's investment in self-driving cars ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by account on 2023-01-16.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Between 100M and 200M Americans voted in the current Presidential election ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Between 10M and 60M Americans switched to work from home during the pandemic ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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IHeartRadio is ad-supported or has a paid premium version ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Apple is the largest company traded on a major stock exchange ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Apple is between $100B and $5T ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Uber is between $50B and $500B ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The tipping point state will be Michigan ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-16.
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[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-16.
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[stocks] EPR upp 40% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.
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[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.
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[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-16.
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@iabvek's presential and senate forecasts (see https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1323522647678873600) will jointly hve a higher (i.e., worse/less accurate) Brier score than 538's forecast ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-11-14.
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Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-17.
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Election results declared tonight (Nov 3) by the majority of major news outlets ( 50% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by LukeS on 2020-11-04.
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RCB wins IPL 2020. ( 8% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-11; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021 ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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ND will finish his EU strategy by the end of the month ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-12-02.
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I will not get my prescription today ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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Hungary will open borders before February ( 10% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-31; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-01-31.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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bitcoin will rise above $20k at least once before May 1st (six months from now) ( 55% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by LukeS on 2020-12-18.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 61kg between the start of the 15th of November 2020 and the start of the 1st of December 2020. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 500 on some day in November. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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I will move to Glasgow this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2022-01-02.
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Politics, US – 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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Politics, US – 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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It will rain tomorrow in NYC ( 65% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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The US military contains between 1M and 5M people. ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-30; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-30.
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Hungary will open its borders back ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-04-30.
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Hungary will open its borders back ( 10% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-03-31.
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Hungary will go into lockdown ( 20% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by MartaK on 2020-12-31.
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Trying cyclical focustime will increase rescuetime score above 75 for week ending November 8th ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dstephens99 on 2020-10-29; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by dstephens99 on 2020-11-11.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out after checking the literature to have any mammalian studies published ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out upon reading the literature to have good in-vitro evidence for effectiveness in at least 5 different viruses ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The most common origin for French Foreign Legion soldiers is Africa. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The annual revenues of the auto industry worldwide are $100B-$999B ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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There is at least one Chinese-owned-and-designed auto manufacturer worth at least $1B ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The market cap of the steel industry is $10-90B ( 50% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-12-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-05.
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ACIW finishes the day more than 3 percent up ( 75% confidence )
Created by KwameA on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-21; judged wrong by KwameA on 2020-10-20.
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1190432 MCN maligne entartet ( 75% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-23.
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In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2020-12-29.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-21.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-10-13; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by sjy on 2020-11-01.
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COVID, UK – It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-12-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
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Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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I'll have listed all my “any” and “1month” items to sell ( 90% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2020-10-12; judged right by pdf on 2020-10-12.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by pdf on 2021-03-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture) ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used ( 20% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] <2c, marine cloud brightening is used ( 30% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.