Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
I'll be able to test a deploy of HC by eod Monday ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-10.
-
Susan Rice becomes Biden's VP choice ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-08-11.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions the election ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions that all sports should be in a bubble ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as negative overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as strongly positive overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as moderately positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as weakly positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Sprouts order matches what I ordered ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
Able to find Pete via reference number ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Answer right away next time I call ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Pakistan beat England in first Test 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-09.
-
Daily increase in coronavirus cases is >= 2.0% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05.
-
Sprouts has frozen green peas in stock ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
SendGrid responds to my help request this week ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
I can get free Sprouts delivery from Sprouts ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as VP (during campaign) ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11.
-
there will be a huge explosion again.. ( 50% confidence )
Created by smodnix on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-07; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-16.
-
All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-04.
-
I will write one (new) post on my effort post blog ( 30% confidence )
Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-09-05; judged wrong by vincentluczkow on 2020-09-20.
-
I will write one post on my math blog. ( 80% confidence )
Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-07.
-
[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …in a landslide by Joe Biden. The voter suppression strategy didn't work. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
-
[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] …narrowly by Joe Biden. His popular vote win will be massive but due to voter suppression and structural advantages his electoral college margin will be small. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Podcast runs for 2+ hours ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Stephen on 2021-01-01.
-
UK does not exceed 5000 confirmed Coronavirus cases in a single day by the end of 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2020-09-26.
-
Bk. will not try Anki (or at least tell me he did) until the end of the month ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-05.
-
No new major mandatory isolation law or something similar in the city I am currently living this week ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
I won't have finished reading either Superforecasting, Faust or the law book by the end of the week ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-10.
-
I will have contacted my prof Am. by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
I will have finished both of the macro chapters by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
I will have finished studying all the probability distributions by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
I will have made a push-up with reasonable (not necessarily perfect) form on the floor until the end of August ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
-
I won't have finished all pieces from Part A of the sight singing program until the end of August ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
-
I won't have finished Unit 7 of the sight singing program by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
I won't have finished (being reasonably satisfied with melodies / chords) transcription of Moondog piece by the end of the month ( 40% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
-
[I won't finish (being reasonably satisfied with the chords / melodies) transcribing the piece by Moondog] by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
-
Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-10-03; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-04-21.
-
India will have higher total (cumulative) confirmed COVID-19 cases than the US at some point before December 31 2021. ( 70% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-01-05.
-
India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
-
90%+ on quiz ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
The answer is body talk ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-02.
-
I get the emailing a spreadsheet thing working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Nuggets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Lakers ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Sixers (my reason is because of their home vs away record and bad seed) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
Noodles taste better cold ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02.
-
[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Steven Nelson ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Joe Haden ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
Devin Bush is in the next three for the Ranking The Steelers series ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
Tyson Alualu starts at NT week one ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-16.
-
Bucks beat Rockets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
Russia's virus vaccine will be successful ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterk13 on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
-
Coda's mainnet will launch by EOY 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
-
Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CoreyS on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
-
Arsenal will win the 2020 FA Cup Final. ( 30% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-08-04.
-
I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
-
MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-10-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
-
Guy wants the basic plan | makes the purchase ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Guy ends up making the purchase ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
The bug is because the batch add endpoint not doing enough ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
-
I get the bugs fixed and sending working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Felipe emails me back today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
-
< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
-
At launch, the cheapest PS5 available from an authorized retailer in the United States will cost more than $500 (excl. tax, shipping) ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-12-10.
-
Zvi interprets this week as at least moderately better than expected ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30.
-
Brian invites me back to play poker ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
I get Twilio working today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
-
Alex gets an A on her essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
At least one NBA team has 5+ players infected with the COVID ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
-
NBA makes it through the bubble without a league-wide shutdown ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
-
Clippers win ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
-
England will beat Ireland in the 2020-07-30 ODI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-30.
-
World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
I figure out the Heroku deployment issue ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
grunt-node-inspector is the issue with my Heroku deployment ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
The Atlas bug is due to my password being incorrect ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
I figure out the Atlas bug ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
I get all of my Anki cards correct today ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
-
I get the database migration for Poker Club Tools working by the end of the day ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
Customer support responds by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
I'm able to finish all of the database migrations by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-07-27; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
By the end of the week, I will have get publishable – even if not awesome – results with my neural network ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
By the end of the week, I will still have made a profit playing poker ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I will Zoom / Skype / Hangout with at least 1 friend this week ( 85% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I won't bike with N. next weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I'll have my portfolio site completely updated by COB Friday, July 31. ( 70% confidence )
Created by dbrentp on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-07-31.
-
Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
-
Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.
-
Crude oil above $45 when August ends ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-01.
-
Politics, US – Before 3 November 2020, federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments becomes law. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
-
Politics, Hong Kong – Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
-
COVID, US – A Carnival Cruise Lines cruise departs from the continental U.S on or before the 15th of January, 2021. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.