PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.

COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.

COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.

RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.

RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by evand on 2021-06-27.

If SpaceX's SN10 launch happens today, it will land successfully, defined as upright and with no explosions. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-03-03; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-04.

A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.

joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.

humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon SwSh DLC ( 33% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Let's Go Johto ( 25% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2071-01-01.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.

New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.

I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-25; known on 2021-03-09; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.

Moderna, Pfizer, or AstraZeneca produce an updated COVID vaccine targeting a mutation in 2021 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-11.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 76 and 128 million (inclusive). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 40 and 75 million (inclusive). ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-02-24; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.

150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between June 1st and July 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between January 9th and March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-22.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

≥1 additional major tech company (FAANG, Twitter, Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Square, and others ≥~5,000 employees at my discretion) with a Bay Area HQ announces in 2021 move of HQ to either Los Angeles (actual move can happen after 2021). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-02-01.

Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.

Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )

Created by pdf on 2021-02-22; known on 2021-06-15; judged right by pdf on 2021-06-15.

sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.

in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged right by qznc on 2022-01-02.

Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.

Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.

Will talk with Mali today ( 85% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.

Everyone will be at the EA meeting tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-17; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.

PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Taylorb on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16.

Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.

Abi and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 99% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.

[Self] I have meditated at least 11 of 14 days from now until March ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-02-26.

[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-01-30.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.

COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.

COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-01-30.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.

Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021 ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.

Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.

Teddy will go to Annisquam ( 80% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-14.

ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-03-02; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-03-11.

[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.

[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.

[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-05-21; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.

[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.

No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-03-22.

Won't get the first EA Speaker I emailed ( 90% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-14.

bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.

bitcoin worth less than 44k in 1 week ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-15; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-16.

AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )

Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.

Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.

Talk with Natalie tonight ( 20% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-02-08; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-08.

50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-07-06; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-07-14.

Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.

World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.

Statistics

Recent Predictions