A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030.

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01

• niconiconi estimated 80% on 2021-02-26
• niconiconi said “Due to perceived threat of future quantum computers (especially the decryption of today’s traffic), standardization of Post-Quantum Cryptography has already started. However, the current consensus is that such a computer is still decades away. ” on 2021-02-26
• niconiconi said “I used 163-bit ECC as it’s the smallest standardized key size and the easiest “real-world crypto” target (although only used in low-security embedded systems) for a large quantum computer to attack. ” on 2021-02-26
• niconiconi said “According to the paper (arXiv:1706.06752), it takes approximately 9n + 2 x log2(ceil(n)) + 10 qubits to attack an n-bit ECDH key, for 163-bit keys, it’s 1492 qubits. Such a computer is impossible to build using today’s technologies.” on 2021-02-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2021-03-11
• Baeboo estimated 72% on 2021-03-11