joe biden dies in presidency

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26

• htaussig estimated 5% on 2021-02-26
• gallerdude estimated 5% on 2021-02-26
• PlacidPlatypus said “What’s the ruling if he resigns for health reasons (or in general leaves office early) and then dies before his term would have ended?” on 2021-03-03
• samoi estimated 3% and said “According to some quick math on actuarial tables, the average 78 year old American male has a 15% chance of dying within four years; Compensating roughly for wealth and increased healthcare, I figure there’s around a 3% chance, but that’s arbitrary.” on 2021-03-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2021-03-08
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2021-03-08
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2021-03-08
• Baeboo estimated 20% on 2021-03-08
• PlacidPlatypus said “For the record my above estimate assumes we’re only counting if he literally dies in office, not if he resigns or otherwise leaves office first even if he dies before the end of his term.” on 2021-03-08
• azatris estimated 3% on 2021-03-10
• zilong estimated 10% on 2021-03-10
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2021-03-10
• MultiplyByZer0 estimated 0% on 2021-04-02
• gallerdude estimated 10% on 2021-08-18
• jamesrom estimated 1% and said “You may also like this prediction: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/200664” on 2021-11-28
• zilong estimated 3% on 2022-08-07