Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[Premier League – Round 37] Arsenal beats Burnley ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-05; known on 2018-05-07; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-06.
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[Premier League – Round 37] Manchester City beats Huddersfield Town ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-05; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-06.
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[Premier League – Round 37] Bournemouth does not lose to Swansea ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-05; known on 2018-05-07; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-05.
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[Argentine Primera ] San Lorenzo does not lose to Belgrano ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-05; known on 2018-05-05; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-05.
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[Primeira Liga – Round 33] SC Braga beats Boavista by 1.5+ goals ( 60% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-04; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[La Liga – Round 36] Sevilla beats Real Sociedad ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-05; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[Premier League – Round 37] Manchester United beats Brighton & Hove Albion ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-04; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[Ligue 1 – Round 36] Dijon FCO does not lose to EA Guingamp ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-06; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-06.
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[Ligue 1 – Round 36] Olympique Lyon beats Troyes AC ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-06; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-06.
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[Ligue 1 – Round 36] AS Saint-Étienne beats FCG Bordeaux ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-06; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-06.
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[Ligue 1 – Round 36] Paris SG beats Amiens ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-06; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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I will H Antitrust ( 5% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will H Corporations ( 25% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will H Criminal Procedure ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will LP Antitrust ( 10% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will get an H* in Legal Profession ( 35% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will get an H in Legal Profession ( 65% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will get a P in Antitrust ( 85% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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I will get a P in Corporations ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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GC will be unable to provide legitimate receipts of an amount that exceeds £100k, to prove he has kept his GWWC pledge for at least 10% of his income ( 60% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-10-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-10-17.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Libertad does not lose to The Strongest ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-04; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Palmeiras does not lose to Alianza Lima ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-04; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Racing Club does not lose to Universidad de Chile ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-04; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Santa Fe beats River Plate ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-04; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-04.
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The Ebb sleep product will be available to easily buy within the next 6 months. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-11-03; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2018-11-03.
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The Ebb sleep product will be available to easily buy within the next 3 months. ( 30% confidence )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-08-04.
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[Europa League – Semi-finals second leg] Atlético de Madrid does not lose to Arsenal ( 90% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Europa League – Semi-finals second leg] RB Salzburg beats Olympique Marseille ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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James Webb Space Telescope to breach its $8bn cost cap. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-07-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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[Copa do Brasil – Eighth-finals first leg] Ponte Preta does not lose to Flamengo ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Grêmio beats Cerro Porteño ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-02.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Corinthians beats Independiente ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Real Garcilaso beats Estudiantes LP ( 60% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-02.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Club Nacional (URU) beats Santos FC ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-02.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Vasco da Gama beats Cruzeiro ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Atlético Tucumán does not lose to Peñarol ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Boca Juniors does not lose to Junior Barranquilla ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 5] Colo-Colo does not lose to Delfín SC ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-03.
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[Champions League – Semi-finals second leg] Bayern Munich does not lose to Real Madrid ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-01; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.
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[Champions League – Semi-finals second leg] AS Roma does not lose to Liverpool FC ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-02.
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Joe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia. ( 73% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Golden State will beat New Orleans. ( 80% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-09.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Philadelphia will beat Boston. ( 72% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-10.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Houston will beat Utah. ( 85% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-09.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Cleveland will beat Toronto. ( 65% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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[Italian Serie B – Round 39] Palermo does not lose to Bari ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-05-01; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.
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[Ligue 2 – Round 36] RC Lens does not lose to Paris FC ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.
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JF will be selected for interview. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-30.
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Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal before the end of 2018. ( 40% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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[Italian Serie A – Round 35] Fiorentina does not lose to Napoli ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-29; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Russian Premier League – Round 28] At least 2 goals in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-29; known on 2018-04-29; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] SL Benfica beats Tondela ( 95% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-28; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.
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By the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates ( 1% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-27; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-06-15.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] FC Porto does not lose to Marítimo ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Rio Ave does not lose to GD Chaves ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Vitória de Guimarães beats Moreirense ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Estoril does not lose to Desportivo das Aves ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Vitória de Setúbal beats Feirense ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Boavista beats Paços de Ferreira ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Portuguese Primeira Liga – Round 32] Belenenses does not lose to SC Braga ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-27; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] River Plate beats Emelec ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-27; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Peñarol beats Libertad ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-27; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Cruzeiro does not lose to Universidad Chile ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-27; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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The Wizards will win game 6 against the Raptors. ( 58% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-04-28.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Junior Barranquilla does not lose to Alianza Lima ( 95% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-27; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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[Europa League – Semi-finals first leg] Arsenal does not lose to Atlético Madrid ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-26; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Europa League – Semi-finals first leg] Marseille does not lose to Red Bull Salzburg ( 95% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-26; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 Group Stage Round 4] Vasco does not lose to Racing Club ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-27; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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E-books won't displace paper ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by livshitsrussia on 2018-04-26; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will earn a P in Criminal Procedure ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-05-25; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-21.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Atlético Tucuman does not lose to The Strongest ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-04-28; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Nacional beats Real Garcilaso ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-04-28; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Boca Juniors does not lose to Palmeiras ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Santa Fe does not lose to Flamengo ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-04-28; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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[Copa Libertadores 2018 – Group Stage Round 4] Defensor Sporting beats Monagas SC ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-26.
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The referendum on the Irish 8th Amendment will pass. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-26.
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Debbie Lesko wins the April 2018 special election for Arizona's 8th District ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-25; judged right by davatk on 2018-04-25.
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[UEFA Champions League – Semi-finals first legs] Liverpool does not lose to Roma ( 90% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-25; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-24.
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[UEFA Champions League – Semi-finals first legs] Bayern Munich beats Real Madrid ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-25; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-25.