PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[La Liga – Round 35] Real Betis beats Málaga ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.

[La Liga – Round 35] Barcelona beats Deportivo ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[La Liga – Round 35] Valencia beats Eibar ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[La Liga – Round 35] Real Sociedad does not lose to Athletic Bilbao ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[La Liga – Round 35] Espanyol beats Las Palmas ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[La Liga – Round 35] Villareal does not lose to Celta de Vigo ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[La Liga – Round 35] Atlético Madrid beats Alavés ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[La Liga – Round 35] Real Madrid beats Leganés ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[La Liga – Round 35] Girona does not lose to Getafe ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[La Liga – Round 35] Sevilla does not lose to Levante ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Stuttgart ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

I go on an overnight hike ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not get a job doing pure research before grad school starts ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

President Monson passes away before April conference ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I read 24+ books this year ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I get into one of the other grad programs I applied to (not UPenn) ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

I am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

I lose weight (current weight @ 170) ( 60% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-07-16.

I go to at least 2 music concerts ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.

I move to Pennsylvania ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

I get into UPenn ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

I have a consistent 3-month stint of exercise ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not do the Future Authoring program ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

Democrats obtain a majority in the house ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not travel to Asia, Europe, or South America ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

I do not do any sort of work in a foreign country ( 70% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not visit a foreign country for 7+ days ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

I hike antelope canyon ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

Trump does not get impeached in 2018 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

There will be a 10+ fatality shooting ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.

Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I visit Mexico at least once ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I take at least one road trip of more than 10 hours one way ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

I switch away from iPhone ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not live in my sisters spare bedroom for more than a month ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I will see Les Mis ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.

Russel M Nelson succeeds Monson ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

Thomas Monson dies ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.

I rent a place in Arizona ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.

I read 12+ books this year ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.

I do not start a blog or write regularly ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not become proficient at cooking for myself ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

I do not become a card carrying democrat ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.

I do not attend a rationality/lesswrong/SSC event or meetup ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.

The Wizards will beat the Raptors in game 5. ( 40% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-26; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-04-26.

mccabe will go to jail or be found dead ( 80% confidence )

Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-24; known on 2023-04-24.

The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020. ( 40% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.

Kawhi Leonard will be on the Spurs as of September 2019 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-07-19.

[Brasileirão – Round 2] Botafogo does not lose to Sport Recife ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-24.

I will read the (supposedly) liberal screeds against citizens united that David sent me ( 95% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-04; judged right by Mjreard on 2018-05-04.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Freiburg does not lose to FC Köln ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Borussia Dortmund beats Werder Bremen ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Wolfsburg does not lose to Hamburger SV ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] RB Leipzig does not lose to Mainz 05 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Schalke 04 beats Borussia Mönchengladbach ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Hertha Berlin beats Augsburg ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Hoffenheim beats Hannover 96 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.

[Bundesliga – Round 32] Bayern Munich beats Eintracht Frankfurt ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Lille and Metz draw ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Monaco beats Amiens ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Nice does not lose to Strasbourg ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Marseille beats Angers ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Troyes beats Caen ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Rennes does not lose to Toulouse ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Bordeaux beats Dijon ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Paris SG beats Guingamp ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Montpellier does not lose to Saint-Étienne ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-27.

[Ligue 1 – Round 35] Lyon beats Nantes ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Newcastle beats West Bromwich ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Liverpool beats Stoke City ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Southampton beats Bournemouth ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Chelsea beats Swansea ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Crystal Palace does not lose to Leicester City ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Manchester United does not lose to Arsenal ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Premier League – Round 36] Tottenham beats Watford ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-01.

[Premier League – Round 36] Burnley beats Brighton & Hove Albion ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Premier League – Round 36] Manchester City beats West Ham ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Premier League – Round 36] Huddersfield Town and Everton draw ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Torino does not lose to Lazio ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Genoa does not lose to Atalanta ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Juventus does not lose to Internazionale ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Roma beats Chievo ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] AC Milan beats Bologna ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Crotone beats Sassuolo ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Udinese beats Benevento ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Sampdoria beats Cagliari ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Italian Serie A – Round 35 ] Hellas Verona does not lose to SPAL 2013 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-29; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Brasileirão – Round 3 results] Botafogo beats Grêmio ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-28.

[Brasileirão – Round 3 results] Sport Recife does not lose to Paraná ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Brasileirão – Round 3 results] Palmeiras beats Chapecoense ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-02; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Brasileirão – Round 3 results] Atlético PR does not lose to Bahia ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

[Brasileirão – Round 3 results] Ceará does not lose to Flamengo ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-05-02; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-29.

Statistics

Recent Predictions