Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Turtle Island Foods (owners of the brand “Tofurky”) lawsuit against the new Missouri meat terminology law will fail, at least before appeals ( 60% confidence )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-30; known on 2020-11-16.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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The combination of VMware and Dell will proceed (in spite of the October shareholder vote) with Dell paying no more than $22 billion in cash and stock to buy back the tracking stock securities that correspond with Dell's interest in VMware. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-29; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books ( 85% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books ( 99% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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Chiron will win TCEC season 13 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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Alexis up before 12 ( 94% confidence )
Created by rk on 2018-08-26; known on 2018-08-26; judged right by rk on 2018-08-26.
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Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known on 2019-08-22; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-24.
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The crack machine will be completed in 24 man hours. https://mojagear.com/journal/2016/05/23/build-home-crack-machine/ ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by astier on 2018-08-13; known on 2018-08-24; judged right by astier on 2018-08-24.
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The EEF Reciprocal Reading trial will conclude the program improves reading comprehension with an effect size of 0.12 (50% CI: 0-0.24) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by davidoj on 2018-08-07; known on 2018-09-16.
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OpenAI will defeat the Dota2 team ( 60% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by shardo on 2018-08-06.
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Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.
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Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.
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Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
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Democrats will narrowly take back the house in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by SeriousPod on 2018-11-07.
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Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-02-01.
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MoV in GA GOP gov primary over 20% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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shafer wins lt gov primary ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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McBath wins GA-07 Dem primary ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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jones wins special election primary in MI-13 ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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el-sayed wins primary ( 15% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tesla's stock price will be below $200 per share on 01/01/2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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SpaceX will successfully recover a fairing using its net catching system by April 15 2019 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-25; known on 2019-04-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-04-16.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-08-05.
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Sangram will able to beat me at Blobby Volleyball in the next 50 days ( 80% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-23; known on 2018-09-11; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
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david kim wins primary in ga-07 ( 30% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-07-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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john james wins mi senate gop primary ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-08-19; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Rashida Tlaib loses primary (bet on it) ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-08-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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dc min wage referendum passes ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-07-17; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-17.
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The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
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Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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I will have visited every city in this province by 2018 EOY. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-08-10; judged wrong by bm on 2018-08-17.
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UK Politics: Another cabinet resignation this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-25.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish my ML course before 2018-07-09 9:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-08; known on 2018-07-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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The July 7th post on Aaron's Polls will get 40 responses or more. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-07-07; known on 2018-07-10; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-07-10.
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Personal, Social – I go to the AW social group on 2018-08-09. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-05; known on 2018-08-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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The Keyholder will win the Heaven or Hell prestige class contest on Giants in the Playground ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-22.
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The ETL Daily – Monthly Metrics will crash on the 07/04 ( 70% confidence )
Created by malafp on 2018-07-03; known on 2018-07-04.
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The 2018 Safra conference on AI is open to the public ( 90% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-07-02; known on 2018-12-03.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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My June 30th post on my personal Facebook polling group will get more than 30 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/293306464388556/ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-07-07.
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My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-12-31.
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Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
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Prediction: By December 31st, 2019, AMD will sell a commercially available 48-core, 96-thread desktop CPU, compatible with currently available motherboards, costing $2,000 USD or less (before tax, shipping, cooler etc). ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 ( 85% confidence )
Created by gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-23.
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HK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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No new US tariffs on Chinese goods to go into effect on July 6. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-10.
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Germany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-06-29.
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Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-11-08.
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SITSA Act is signed into law. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2018-06-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, UK – Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-06.
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Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by max on 2018-06-15; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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Aaron – 1on1 – Uses the phrase “Over-Engineering” ( 80% confidence )
Created by zach.riddle on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-06-15.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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My relationship with my girlfriend lasts at least until the end of 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2018-06-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by avi on 2018-08-13.
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By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Personal – I will be free to go to the movies on Saturday 16 June. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-06-11; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by moyamo on 2018-06-17.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Politics, EU – Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Politics, US – An additional state after Illinois ratifies the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of July 2018. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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I believe that everyone my company is asking to verify I-9 forms is about to be laid off. Along with those forms they will be asked to sign an “employment at will” form which will allow the company to lay them off with no severance. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by drolma on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-09-01.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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Politics, US – Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire Governor signs HB 1319 before the end of June 2018. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Business, UK – Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, World – EU applies retaliatory tariffs to imports from the US by end of July 2018. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, Golden State will beat Cleveland. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-06-01; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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I have exercised 260 days this year. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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I have exercised 250 days this year. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-17.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-08.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.