PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.

I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-11.

[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged right by amadeu on 2018-12-08.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.

[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.

ACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by marianne on 2018-11-26.

ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.

ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.

ACE will announce GFI as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.

Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.

People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.

Politics, US – California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-08.

Tech – Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.

Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.

Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.

EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.

Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-19; known on 2018-10-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.

One of my specs is screwed up ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.

Charge cord doesn't reach ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.

Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.

Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.

Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-14; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-15.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.

Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-10-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11.

I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-19.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10.

Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.

Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.

Alex and Jenny will be home ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.

We get kicked out of the hotel ( 10% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.

We get asked to keep it down at the hotel ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.

There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-03; known on 2018-12-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-28.

They fix my bike for free ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.

It costs $100 or less to fix my bike ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.

It costs $200 or less to fix my bike ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.

The hotel room has a king sized bed ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.

The hotel room has a big bathtub ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.

The hotel room has a fridge ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.

LeVeon Bell won't be traded ( 75% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-31.

LeVeon Bell will report at the bye week like he says he will, assuming he doesn't get traded ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-21; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.

They won't have milk at the business center ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01.

George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.

Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.

Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.

Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-18.

Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.

Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.

Lewis Hamilton will become 2018 Formula 1 World Champion ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Я завершу первой главу ВКР до 1 ноября ( 70% confidence )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Stommelen on 2018-11-12.

The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

AI goes FOOM until 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-02.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2063-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2064-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2056-01-01.

The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2091-01-01.

The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2039-01-01.

Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2034-01-01.

Todas las pwrsonas usaremos IA al menos una vez en su vida en Peru, segun Marcos ( 60% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2038-09-23.

Java va a desaparecer o perder el mercado, segun Diego de makerlab. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2026-09-23.

Finished the water ( 20% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2048-09-23.

Android studio morirá en dos años. Flutter se corona como el sucesor, Segun Juan. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2020-09-23.

Fredy predice que Python desaparecerá Python se reduce a 70% popularidad (Moisés dice que lo revivirá) ( 60% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2020-09-23.

Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moyamo on 2018-09-22; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by moyamo on 2018-09-29.

Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-19; known on 2061-01-01.

Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.

Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.

He's (referring to Rurik) not gonna get one deliverable done. Chin said this on 10:41:04 PM IST ( 100% confidence )

Created by volis on 2018-09-14; known on 2018-11-16.

Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-12; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.

A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-11; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.

US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

US, Sports – A team from the American League wins the 2018 World Series. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-02.

Personal – I buy an ebike conversion kit (defined as one or more parts with the intent of fitting them to my bike to convert it into an ebike) before the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.

given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-12-04.

S's endo gives her a prescription for b or c ( 20% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-09-05; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-09-05.

The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.

The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.

There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2028-08-13.

Tempur Sealy International Inc stock will fall 15% below the current price of 55.39 in the next six months and remain (at least) below 5% of the current price at the end of the six months ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-09-01; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.

Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-30; known on 2030-01-31.

Statistics

Recent Predictions