PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Popov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.

Tsarukyan to beat Pfister at KLF/MFP 220 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

RVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Dias to beat Machado at Shooto Brasil 84 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

Benkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Seiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Wenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-31; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Ngeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.

Janssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Andre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-08.

Krantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-09.

Milson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2018-09-04.

Kristofic to beat Raska at Oktagon 6 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.

ITA will be up MoM at end of May. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.

“Avengers: Infinity War” will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-17.

Politics, Brazil – Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.

Politics, Spain – Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03 ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.

Tech – TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.

Politics, Ireland – At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.

KOSPI will be down EOM. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-25; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.

I will make it to hiking if it is on Saturday June 2nd ( 30% confidence )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2018-06-02.

I will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-30.

I will get an offer for contract work with $60/hour rate. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-24.

Germany to beat Mexico June 17 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-17.

Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.

Germany to win the World Cup ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.

Iran to formally exit JCPOA in 2018 H1 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.

Sankar is currently less than 10 posts into the book ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by shardo on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by shardo on 2018-07-23.

The climate will be ENSO-neutral in 2018 Q3, according to the US NOAA. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.

“Game of Thrones” S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-22.

Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.

Brent to remain above WTI throughout 2018 (end-of-day settlement). ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.

Politics, South America – Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.

Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.

Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.

Politics, US – In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.

Politics, US – In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.

Politics, US – In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.

A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Lee to beat Yamaguchi at ONE on May 18 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-19.

Whittaker beats Romero at UFC 225 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-10.

I'll finish 25alg + 2prob cards in 1+1/2 pomodoros (~35 minutes) ( 60% confidence )

Created by njmpether on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-05-17; judged right by njmpether on 2018-05-17.

AMD's stock hits $20 by May 16, 2019 ( 60% confidence )

Created by lettergram on 2018-05-16; known on 2019-05-16; judged right by lettergram on 2018-12-18.

“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-22.

A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF second leg ] Deportivo Toluca beats Club Tijuana ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-14; known on 2018-05-14; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-14.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF second leg ] CF América does not lose to Santos Laguna ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-14; known on 2018-05-14; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-14.

Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Hamburger SV does not lose to Borussia Mönchengladbach ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Mainz 05 does not lose to Werder Bremen ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Bayern Munich does not lose to Stuttgart ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Schalke 04 does not lose Eintracht Frankfurt ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Wolfsburg does not lose FC Köln ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Bayer Leverkusen does not lose to Hannover 96 ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Freiburg beats Augsburg ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

[Bundesliga – Round 34] Hoffenheim does not lose to Borussia Dortmund ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-12.

Issa will get a PhD ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-12; known on 2035-01-01.

Tech – Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.

Tech – Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.

Tech – Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jamesrom on 2018-06-13.

Tech – Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.

Politics, US – A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.

Politics, China – There is a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.

Politics, Middle East – There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.

Before 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 16% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019 ( 13% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.

Before 1 January 2019, the US federal government bans the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

[Ligue 2 – Round 38] Nancy does not lose to US Orléans ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Ligue 2 – Round 38] RC Lens does not lose to AJ Auxerre ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[EFL Championship – Promotion play-offs ] Fulham does not lose to Derby County ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Primeira Liga – Round 34] Chaves does not lose to Desportivo das Aves ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Scottish Premiership Playoffs – Semi-final second leg] Livingston does not lose to Dundee United ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Ligue 1 – Round 37] Guingamp does not lose to Marseille ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-11; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF first leg ] Club Tijuana does not lose to Deportivo Toluca ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Liga MX – Clausura SF first leg ] Santos Laguna does not lose to América ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-11; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Atlético PR does not lose to Newell's Old Boys ( 60% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-11; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

[Premier League – Round 31] Manchester United does not lose to West Ham ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-11.

Indian stock market crashes before 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jp870 on 2018-05-10; known on 2020-05-12.

[Superliga Argentina – Round 25] Boca Juniors does not lose to Gimnasia LP ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Torneo Intermedio Uruguay – Group A ] Nacional beats Fénix ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.

[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Botafogo does not lose to Audax Italiano ( 80% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] São Paulo FC beats Rosário Central ( 70% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Copa Sudamericana – First stage second leg] Temuco does not lose to Estudiante Mérida ( 90% confidence )

Created by musashimaru on 2018-05-09; known on 2018-05-10; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-05-10.

[Superliga Argentina – Round 25] Racing Club does not lose to Arsenal Sarandí ( 80% confidence )