PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

'The fifth book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series will be published: 5%' —CronoDAS ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-07-24.

'“Core inflation” of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' —CronoDAS ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.

'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

'Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year' —scav ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by scav on 2011-03-03.

Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.

'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' —icebrand ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.

'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.

'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

'The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.' —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.

Apple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 —Robert X. Cringeley ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

'the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.' —orthonormal ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' —JoshuaZ ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.

'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.

The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.

Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Yahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Yahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.

3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2083-01-01.

US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.

Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' —John Ellis ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.

'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.

AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.

“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Duck Hunt revealed for 3DS —Game Informer ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Final Fantasy XIV announced by Sony in 2011. —Game Informer ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Diablo III port to consoles announced in 2011 —Game Informer ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

At least one FPS game announced for Xbox Kinect in 2011 —Game Informer ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-01.

Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 —Game Informer ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.

Readers' Choice for Time's 2011 Person of the Year: Anonymous —Seamus Condron ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Delicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. —Seamus Condron ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Kevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. —Seamus Condron ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Groupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 —Seamus Condron ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.

Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013. ( 8% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

Borders will merge, be bought, or file for bankruptcy by 2013. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-17.

No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Bebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

MySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 20% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Ken Jennings will defeat Watson at Jeopardy! ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-16.

The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.

Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 44% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights ( 4% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-14.

Asif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

The Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. —Capitol Commentary ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.

Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.

'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.

Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

By 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood. ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.

Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.

'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 10% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.

'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.

'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-01.

Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.

'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-10.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.

Statistics

Recent Predictions