PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.

'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.

'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.

“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.

“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared” in 2018 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-19.

“Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds” in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.

“Robot insect spies are in military use” in 2018 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.

By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.

I'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2010-10-16; known on 2010-10-20; judged right by Matt on 2010-10-20.

The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.

Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.

Portable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.

e-paper in wide use by 2018 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Crossrail opens in London ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

The SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 – 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2010-10-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-07.

“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.

By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-07.

The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

I will re-read the Haruhi novels & finish my Haruhi essay by 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Playstation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.

HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

Facebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion —Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Maria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mikko2 on 2010-10-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-12.

Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.

Wikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-02.

California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.

Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.

'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

India launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.

“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.

“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

“sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.

British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.

by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2037-01-01.

Subversion will not be released by 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.

Subversion will not be released by 2011. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.

Subversion will not be released in 2010. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.

“within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle” —imbcmdth ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22.

The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2012-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-18.

The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.

Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.

Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.

Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.

“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.

“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.

“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

A 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products. ( 70% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-02; known on 2010-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-31.

Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.

Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.

Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-09-18; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-09-18.

“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.

“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.

Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.

The US Fed will increase interest rates by November 2010. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2010-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-16.

The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.

The current UK coalition government will last until the end of 2010 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by benj on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Larks on 2011-01-01.

“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Lucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2010-05-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-08-27.

Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

Home sous-vide cookers <$200. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.

Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.

“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.

“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.

“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.

Statistics

Recent Predictions