PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Atlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-07.
ARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
MNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
MNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-01.
ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.
ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-17.
“the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-06.
“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.
“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-20.
“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-08-16.
“U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015” —CISFHR ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.
Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
The WTC mosque will be relocated. —Roger Ebert ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.
A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 39% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.
“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven. ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
“If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2021-02-01.
Mervi Tapola will either cancel or let expire her divorce with Matti Nykänen during the six month waiting period. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mikko on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-02-17; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-11.
“Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more” —Intrade ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-31.
“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
r.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Frank on 2011-01-02.
“Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-05.
“Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
“Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-05.
“Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-02.
“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
“Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less.” —Farhad Manjoo ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
The Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship. ( 65% confidence )

Created by makemoniesonline on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-16; judged right by makemoniesonline on 2010-08-12.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
UCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-06.
ALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-10-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-11.
“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
“In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent.” —Anders Borg ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-02.
“We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013.” —Christie Romer ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” —Anssi Vanjoki ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by gimpf on 2010-12-12.
“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.” —Bill Gary ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2013-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-31.
By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. —Bruce Buena de Mesquita ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by fergus on 2011-09-17.