The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years

Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31

• jasticE estimated 10% on 2010-10-14
• gwern estimated 0% and said “Red supergiants can last an awful long time.” on 2010-10-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-05-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Thinking about this more, reducing confidence due to the instability of Betelgeuse (especially the unexplained shrinking.) ” on 2011-05-26
• jasticE estimated 5% and said “adjusting for input” on 2011-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-09
• Baeboo estimated 3% and said “It is between 612 and 880 light years away, so we might observe that if it died between 1139 and 1458.” on 2019-01-10