Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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I will attend today's public lecture. ( 80% confidence )
Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-13.
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David Percival will finish all of the requirements of Ben's studio by week 9 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-27.
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The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-25.
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Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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I'll finish bloging for packing tonight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-03.
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Olivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-07-31.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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The price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April – http://bit.ly/eUr3eE ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.
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the war between Lybia and France will strat this Friday ( 56% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-26; judged wrong by wael on 2011-03-28.
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I won't finish my work by 4A.M tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-03-22.
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Ben will come ten minutes late to class tomorrow. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.
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Scooter will arrive on Weds. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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Scooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
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Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, due Tues, delivered today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-21; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21.
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There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22.
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Labour will lose this weekends NSW State election. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-27; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-27.
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I'll finish to make my disaster story for tomorrow by 11 pm tonight. ( 30% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-21; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-03-21.
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Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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It'll be raining when I get up in the morning. ( 95% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-03-20; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-23.
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Petrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.
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DK will bring coffee in the morning into his work. ( 99% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-03-21; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-03-21.
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With current perforation settings the façade for the bank building will meet or exceed requirements for shading according to my testing. ( 87% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21.
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I will write 3 blog posts before the end of Monday the 21st of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.
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By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-01-01.
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Tottenham Hotspur will beat West Ham by two goals or more tonight. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-19; known on 2011-03-19; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-20.
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I'll watch ALIEN 2 tonight. ( 75% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-19; known on 2011-03-19; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-03-19.
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today we will finish class later than 4pm! ( 80% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-19; known on 2011-03-19; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-03-19.
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apple store in Sydney will not sell all the new ibad2 on 25 of march ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Hani on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged right by Hani on 2011-03-31.
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The Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged wrong by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.
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Volcano will accur on Baekdu Mountain within 2mounths. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-05-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-22.
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Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.
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The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Ben will not be tired at the end of todays class. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-18.
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I can not finish any books ! ( 50% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.
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The international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.
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I will go to morning yoga class on 18 of March 2011. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-20.
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The world will end on 21 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-22; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2012-12-22.
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The world will end on 12 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-13; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-13.
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Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Urban drawings will be done by monday. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-22.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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It will not rain tomorrow so I'll not need to bring my umbrella to uni… ( 60% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-17; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-18.
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90% of classmates will be arrived in class on time ( 80% confidence )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-17; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-03-17.
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I will lose 2 kilos by next 15 days ( 75% confidence )
Created by puya on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-30; judged wrong by puya on 2011-03-31.
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I will watch few more movies about apocalypse ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-25; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-03-31.
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Ben will not be joining us for the camping trip. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Ye on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-20; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-14.
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I will go to yoga class at least 8 times. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ye on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-05-22.
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I will go to camping in Blue mountains on Sunday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ye on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-20; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-05-22.
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I will get back my cell phone before Thursday ( 60% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-17; judged right by wael on 2011-03-31.
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I will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.
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I will make it to an early yoga session this friday ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-18.
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My car will be fixed before the end of next week. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-27; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.
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we can see super moon on this saturday. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-19; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-03-19.
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she will ask me hangout again and play pool! ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-31.
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less than 7 students will come to Ben's office today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by puya on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-15.
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I will struggle with the fitness training at Soccer tonight after my first Bikram Yoga session! ( 80% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-16; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17.
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I will look to the shark map in Sydney on Wednesday? ( 85% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-16; judged right by wael on 2011-03-16.
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I will read three article before Friday ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Hani on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-18; judged right by Hani on 2011-03-18.
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I will not late for work today!! ( 70% confidence )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-15; judged right by dumun on 2011-03-15.
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Ben will wear blue T-shitr on tuesday ( 80% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-15; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-15.
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I will design a house this week ( 65% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-17; judged right by wael on 2011-03-31.
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All clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4! ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17.
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Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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I will take IELTS on 19th March, morning and i will get 6.0 ! ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-18.
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I will finish “on the beach” soon this week! ( 60% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-20; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-21.
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I will finish at least one reading before sun-rise ( 80% confidence )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-15; judged right by dumun on 2011-03-14.
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Less than 7 students will attend the RUBY lesson today. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by puya on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14.
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Nam will oversleep tomorrow and come to uni late… ( 70% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-13; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-14.
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“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” —Shamir Karkal ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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I will finish my blog post about the generator before Monday ( 70% confidence )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-12; known on 2011-03-14; judged wrong by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-15.
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Someone will make me drink at least 3 glass at the birthday party later..! ( 60% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-12; known on 2011-03-13; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-13.
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i will lose weight after yoga class for sure! ( 100% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-20; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-03-21.
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I will make it to class on time on saturday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11.
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only 4 students will read to night ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-14; judged wrong by wael on 2011-04-04.
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6 of students from Ben's class will attend yoga class again ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-13; judged wrong by wael on 2011-03-31.
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I'll be in dreamland by 12am tonight… Tired… Zzz… ( 85% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-11; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-12.
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I will attend at least nine yoga classes ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-20.
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I will beat Stephen in our latest game of 'Words with Friends' ( 50% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-14.
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I'll finish my one of readings that i read before at the camping within this weekends. ( 90% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-14; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-04-14.
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less than 12 students will attend my class today ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.
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I will receive the books I ordered from amazon by April. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.
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I will wake up early tomorrow, and go to library before 10 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-11.
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Our Qantas flight to Adelaide will depart Sydney on time tomorrow. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-12; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-13.
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User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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I won't see my flatmate more than once this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-14.
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I'll finish a model before I sleep… ( 90% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-09; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-09.
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60% of students will have lunch before yoga class!! ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-12; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-04-14.
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I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-06-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.
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I will eat "pho' " (vietnamese beef noodle soup) at least one in this week! I miss pho' ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-12; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-03-12.
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I will only drink coffee once a week for the rest of March. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-25.
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I will be on time on Friday ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-11; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15.
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Three student will miss the yoga class ( 75% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-12; judged wrong by wael on 2011-03-14.
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I will finish reading at least 3 chaters and papers by friday. ( 56% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged right by wael on 2011-03-09.
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Ben will be late for the yoga class. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.