PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' —Lipton ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02.

Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.

P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

“Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right.” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-07.

“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.” ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.

“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.

Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.

In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.

90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.

“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.

The crit session will finish after 6pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-14; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-16.

I will finish elective assignment tonight ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-06-12; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-06-13.

Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.

'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.

‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2012-06-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

btc ~$15 in 2 weeks. —cwkoss ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.

'The final collapse of the European Union' ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.

'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.

'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by omni on 2021-07-23.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*' ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.

Zlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.

Sweden will beat Finland in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.

Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

Australian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-06.

There will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.

I'll sleep after 5am today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-05; known on 2011-06-05; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-08.

Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.

Sandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester. ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.

Jess will be back in the labs before midnight ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-05.

Federer will beat Nadal in the French Open final ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-05.

Bitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' —BrideTrollApprentice ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-03; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-06.

At least 3 parcels will arrive this afternoon. ( 20% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-02; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-06-05.

I will mark this prediction as false ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KatjaGrace on 2011-06-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.

I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.

Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.

Söderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.

Djokovic will win French Open 2011 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04.

Robin Söderling will win French Open 2011 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.

It will rain all day today ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ye on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by Ye on 2011-05-31.

Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 – http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2030-12-15.

nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car – http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.

Vettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ye on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Ye on 2011-05-29.

My laptop will get fixed by Wednesday. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-06-01.

Vic Steamers will win Monday night's touch footy game. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-06-01.

I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-06-17.

I will finish my time line infographic of floating city formation by tommorrow. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-05-30.

Korea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

I will return all the books from library today. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Ye on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Ye on 2011-05-29.

We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-30.

Hernández will score the first goal in the CL final ( 15% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

Messi will not get any goal tonight! ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-29.

After the first half, the result of the match between Manchester and Barcelona will be a draw. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-28; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-29.

The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

The testing of fire alarm will go off again tomorrow morning. ( 40% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-27; known on 2011-05-28; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-05-30.

My credit card wil be one of the ones blocked by Westpac after the security breach! ( 20% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-27; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-28.

'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Alzheimer's disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.

'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy' ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

'10 nanometre chips enter mass production' ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

“14 nanometre chips enter mass production” in 2013. ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.

'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.

'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.

I will finish reading the EML archives by 2012. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-25; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-27.

Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by travis2010 on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-08-15; judged right by niekjetten on 2011-06-21.

We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29.

5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

At 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

No more than 5 of my students will meet today's pin up deadline ( 70% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-24; known on 2011-05-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-24.

“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.' —Danny Hillis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.

There will be no Earthquake on May 21st ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-20; known on 2011-05-21; judged wrong by jayjay664@hotmail.com on 2011-05-21.

Barack Obama will be reelected in the next US election. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.

MoR update within a week ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by yurifury on 2011-05-19; known on 2011-05-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-26.

Barcelona will win the champions league final ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-05-18; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

Porto will win Braga tonight. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-18; known on 2011-05-19; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-20.

World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.

Statistics

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