PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-15; known on 2016-04-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-16.

Real Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-04-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-17.

Tomorrow, It will rain when I wake up! ( 70% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-04-16; judged right by minhduc on 2011-04-16.

I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.

My sketch design will finish after 3 days? ( 25% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by wael on 2011-04-22.

Man UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by dumun on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-05-05; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-06.

To save money, I will cook my own dinner tonight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-04-13; judged right by Ye on 2011-04-14.

Niklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care ( 35% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.

Niklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.

Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-17.

My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-04-12.

My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.

This summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-18.

2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

my cold will cover next 3 days, please! ( 80% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.

Ben will be late for tomorrows class. ( 80% confidence )

Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-12; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-12.

Barcelona will win the copa del ray. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

5 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) ( 90% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11.

10 or more people will attend tonight's compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) ( 70% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11.

Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

I will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-05-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.

she will call me or text me next weekend for dinner! ( 60% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-04-15; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.

I will do some research for tidal energy generation system tonight. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-10; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-10.

I'm going to hunt and fish weighing half Kg ( 55% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-10; judged right by wael on 2011-04-10.

MU 1-2 Chelsea next week game! ( 85% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-04-14.

my nose will recover “cold” tomorrow ( 60% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-10; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.

Liverpool will win Manchester City ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-11.

“Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction” ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-12; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13.

My rent will increase in June ( 70% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-07-08; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-07-26.

I'll go to fish market in the morning tomorrow ( 40% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-04-09; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-14.

MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-08; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-08.

It will rain for my soccer match tomorrow. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-04-10; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-10.

eun will come to library before 10AM in the morning. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-04-07; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-10.

The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

I will finish tutorial 1 tonight for project management subject. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-04-07; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-04-07.

I will get a 4.0 in my class. ( 96% confidence )

Created by etrecheesecake on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by etrecheesecake on 2011-05-12.

I will watch at least 2 movies by midnight ( 90% confidence )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-04-07; judged right by Ye on 2011-04-07.

I will go shopping tonight with boy friend. ( 30% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-04-07.

I will use one of Sydney's temporary open-air urinals within the next month. ( 10% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-05-06; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07.

Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.

I'll finish watching all the DVDs by tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-07; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-04-07.

Tottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-21.

I will cook dinner tonight for my boy friend. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-06.

Christiano Ronaldo will play for Real Madrid against Tottenham Hotspur in tomorrows Champions League clash. ( 35% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-05; known on 2011-04-06; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-06.

Today, I will finish Event-Cities by midnight ( 60% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-05; known on 2011-04-05; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-05.

I will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break ( 80% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-05; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by minhduc on 2011-04-28.

I will finish The Making of Hongkong by midnight today ( 90% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-04; known on 2011-04-04; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.

I will finish documentation for bus station by tuesday night. ( 99% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-04; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-04-06.

“Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final” – Barcelona president Sandro Rosell ( 10% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

Real Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

FC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-12.

AC Milan will win Seria A 2010/11 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

West Ham will beat MU tonight! or at least a draw ( 60% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-04-03; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03.

Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government! ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-03.

There'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-29.

Dumun and I will be in same group in Sustainable Urban Development. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-02; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-02.

I wont see her any more ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-01; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2012-04-09.

Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

“Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.

Triple h will beat the undertaker on WrestlMainia 27 ( 75% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-04; judged wrong by wael on 2011-04-04.

I'll not be able to sleep tonight ( 30% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-01.

I will clearn our unit bathroom tomorrow. ( 73% confidence )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-04-01.

I will lose 2 kilos before next friday ( 85% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-08; judged right by wael on 2011-04-04.

The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.

Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-31.

Milan will beat Inter on Sunday ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03.

The Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-07-01.

I will finish mapping for 'The City' by next Thursday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-07; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-04-14.

Darren will finish reading 'The Walking Dead' by Sunday ( 90% confidence )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-04-03; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-04-05.

Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

chelsea will eliminate man united in the quarterfinals of the champions league. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-04-14.

White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.

I will write 3 blogs before 5 of April ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wael on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-04-06; judged right by wael on 2011-04-06.

I will submit all relevant gwern.net links into witcoin.com within 30 minutes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-03-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-29.

Australia will beat Germany by 1:0 tomorrow! ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dumun on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-03-30; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-30.

I will watch 3 earthquake movie before this weekend. ( 70% confidence )

Created by dumun on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-04-03; judged right by dumun on 2011-04-03.

The USA or Russia will be involved in my hypothetical nuclear threat scenario for my design studio. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-05-29.

I will start to research my threat tonight ( 80% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-03-29; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-03-29.

I will write 2 blog posts daily for 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28; known on 2011-04-04; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-04-02.

I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today. ( 90% confidence )