PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

My MRI scan on Friday will cost no more than $290 ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-16; known on 2011-05-21; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-05-21.

'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.

The note I bought online will arrive by friday. ( 40% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-20; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-05-25.

I'll be the earliest for my meeting tomorrow morning. ( 30% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-15; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-05-18.

Sweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

I will finish The City assignment by Tuesday ( 60% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-17.

Liverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

more than 10 students will come to my class today ( 45% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

More than 5 students will come to my class today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

CC Strikers will win their game tomorrow without me playing. ( 50% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-15.

There will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-08-04.

There will be no one at home when Im back! ( 90% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.

I'll be home before 9pm! ( 90% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.

I will loose weight 2kg before graduation ceremony ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-05-11; known on 2011-05-18; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-05-19.

I will finish project management assignment by Monday night. ( 100% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-05-11; known on 2011-05-16; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-05-16.

The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

If i study hard, i could be the best ! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-11; known on 2021-05-11.

Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.

“The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier's book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.

David will make his Vancouver connection to Kelowna as scheduled ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rgoodlad on 2011-05-10; known on 2011-05-11; judged right by rgoodlad on 2011-05-11.

By 2014 scientists will come up with the discovery of the evolution of some animals that look like humans. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-05-09; known on 2014-05-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-05-22.

Evangelion 3.0: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

“…in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-05-22; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-22.

The unidentified object in Stockholms archipelago was a submarine ( 30% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-07-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-26.

Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.

RBA will raise interest rates by 0.25% in June ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07.

Chelsea will get the Premier League title this season. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

Chelsea will win Manchester United. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-09.

Liverpool will win Fulham tomorrow ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-09; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

There will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-06-07.

Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-27.

MM Lee's FB fan counts will still surpass Nicole Seah's 1 week after the sg election. ( 100% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-05; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-05-15.

Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

Rebuild of Evangelion 3.0: Asuka will pilot Eva unit-06; it will go to Terminal Dogma and Asuka will beg Shinji to kill her (as opposed to Kaworu) ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Evangelion manga: there will be no Third Impact ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.

PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.

Evangelion manga: Third Impact will be controlled by/center around Asuka ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.

Evangelion manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-05.

Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.

Bitcoin >$5/btc in a week —jimrandomh ( 20% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.

Next tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm. ( 70% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-03; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-03.

I will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

The result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

Barcelona will win the 2010-2011 La Liga title . ( 100% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-10-15.

Liverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

I will finish leave_command today ( 80% confidence )

Created by yurifury on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-02; judged right by yurifury on 2011-05-02.

i will watch fast and furious within this week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-05-07.

The coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow ( 85% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

The coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow ( 65% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

The coastal trail will take less than 5 hours tomorrow ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

14/14 of my students will submit work on Wednesday that fulfils the minimum requirements. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.

A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. ( 2% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-04-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

I will study all night after finish work during weekends. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.

Tanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-08.

Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.

My soccer game will be called off this weekend. ( 80% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

The vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding. ( 1% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

There will be a terrorist attack in the UK/Ireland this Friday ( 15% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

Eric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 2% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-13; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-13.

I will have a presentation on Thursday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-28.

I will finish my elective assignment within this week. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.

Man United won't be able to beat Schalke tonight ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-27.

Matt will submit a physical model at his next presentation ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-05-06; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

Group meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

At least one group member will not show up before 11am tomorrow. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

Despite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-08-24; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.

Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2025-04-24.

There will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-23.

I will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday ( 65% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by wael on 2011-04-30.

My diarrhoea will stop tomorrow. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-23.

My Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late! ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-28; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-28.

MU will get CL this year ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-05-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-26.

After Easter holiday, the temperature will be down more than 5 degrees. ( 29% confidence )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-05-26.

Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future! ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2111-04-20.

i will go to fishing this Easter! ( 80% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-27.

MUFC will beat Newcastle united by 2:0 ( 40% confidence )

Created by dumun on 2011-04-19; known on 2011-04-20; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-04-20.

The high school student that FY is meeting today will accept the request to develop the iOS app that she wants. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18.

I will get new mornitor within this week. ( 30% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.

I will go easter show on Friday. ( 99% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-22; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.

ben will do the first floor of the opt model. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.

There will be an massive earthquake in the midde east next year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.

There will 2 constituencies won by the opposition parties in the coming S'pore election. ( 70% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-05-15.

Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2511-04-16.

There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human? ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-06-08.

PC at home will disappear in future ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-06-08.

elevator will be control by voice? ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2013-04-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-16.

TV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2016-04-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.

The string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-04-17; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-17.

Statistics

Recent Predictions