PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-10.

By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.

Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.

Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.

By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.

By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.

I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

The new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year. ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.

I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.

I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.

amigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno Toprunner show for me. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.

Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.

Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.

Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.

The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.

The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-18.

“Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.

Madonna's new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.

Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.

Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.

“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.

I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% —Michael Pettis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

“Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.” —Michael Pettis ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.

My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.

My house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.

My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.

There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.

My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-08-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30.

Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

I will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-31.

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-04.

Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.

“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25.

“Same sex marriages to resume in California before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.

“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“Bashar al-Assad to no longer be President of Syria before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Adderall: day 16 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 15 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 14 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 12 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 11 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 10 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 9 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 8 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 6 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 5 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 3 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 2 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 1 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

“I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-01.

“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.

'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' —Robert X Cringely ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Darwin's employer was Charles Simonyi ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was Peter Thiel. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was Bezos. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

Mike Darwin will post part 4 of his diet series before or during Wednesday (EST). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-21; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-25.

“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.

Statistics

Recent Predictions