“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739507” on 2011-08-24
• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-08-24
• Jack estimated 60% and said “Uhhh, gonna try to scrounge up some funds for intrade. Also, depending on what intrade is charging per transaction these days, this event is dutchbookable.” on 2011-08-31
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” on 2016-01-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-09
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.