PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be scrapped ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be nonoperational ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in 3.0 or 4.0 ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half ( 3% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense ( 8% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva ( 2% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Mari will attend school as a regular student ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la Re-Take (not a human-angel hybrid) ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: 3.0 Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself “Asuka Langley Soryu” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after 2.0 and have an unimportant off-screen death ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in 3.0 than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's 2.0 flashback ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch ( 18% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview) ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

GiveWell will accept me as a volunteer. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-11.

Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01.

Google & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.

LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.

There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

Statistics

Recent Predictions