PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

LSU will win the BCS national championship for the 2011 season. ( 70% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-11; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-10.

cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.

wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.

DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ben Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Cain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

I will finish my voice recording+transcription viewer before 2012 ( 88% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-29.

I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-15.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

I will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.

Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.

I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.

“Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012” -ipredict ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.

The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.

If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.

The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.

I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.

Before 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-03.

'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

“Joe Paterno to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.

GJP: #1033 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.

GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-03.

GJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-13.

GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

GJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.

GJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-03.

GJP: #1035 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012? ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1036 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-02.

GJP: #1037 Will Greece remain a member of the EU through 1 June 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-02.

GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.

Both RTC abstracts will be accepted ( 35% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Dan's RTC abstract will be accepted ( 54% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

My RTC abstract will be accepted ( 66% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Most of the modules in Ruby's “stdlib” will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-02-24.

An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by muflax on 2013-02-24.

D-Day Dice will become the top funded Tabletop game on Kickstarter by raising $82,000+ ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-12-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-08.

As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.

I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

I will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders” -ipredict ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

“Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

The US will have >4% yearly GDP growth, for more than 2 quarters, by Dec 31, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by annis on 2011-11-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

Kickstarter will generate more than $2.5 million USD in successfully funded game projects that are non-video related in 2012 ( 80% confidence )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by richardbliss on 2013-01-01.

A game project which is non-video will raise more than $100,000 on Kickstarter by August 31, 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by roxton on 2012-05-04.

NGE: There will be live-action at some point in Rebuild. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in 4.0. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.

The Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hackedtobits on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-07.

Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

Groupon will be delisted in 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07.

This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by thaprophet on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-11-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-04.

United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

AAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Greece will quit euro ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

I will still use Beeminder in a month. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-03.

I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.

Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.

The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.

Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.

My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.

LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2018-01-01 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Next 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally —kenjackson ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.

“Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade” ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27; judged wrong by nohat on 2012-08-21.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will have completed my Introduction to Java Anki Deck and will have uploaded it by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-01.

I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will buy a MacBook Air before 2013 ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-07.

Statistics

Recent Predictions