PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Day 1: pill was modafinil. ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-10.

Giving What We Can will have at least 320 pledged members by December 31, 2012. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by CarlShulman on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.

I will have completed the information collection exercise by Monday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-10.

I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.

Tomorrow morning, I will wake up within five minutes of the time I set my alarm for in order to study for my final. ( 85% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2011-12-09; judged right by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08.

WinDirStat will crash or stop responding for 30 minutes on my ~7M+ file scan ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08; known on 2011-12-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08.

gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

One of the comfortable seats in the library Starbucks will be available when I walk in. ( 25% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07.

The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.

Brazil will win the 2014 soccer world cup ( 30% confidence )

Created by albert on 2011-12-07; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-13.

Votes in Russian legislative elections will be re-counted (due to vote fraud and other irregularities). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Serge on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by Serge on 2012-03-06.

I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

I will start studying for the entry exam today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-06.

James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.

Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.

lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.

I will add cards to more than one anki deck today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.

lukeprog will offer me a job in the email. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.

North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.

The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

None of the students with extra time will use all their extra time. ( 75% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02; known on 2011-12-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average* will finish 2011 below 12.000 points *high (close) in 2011 12.810 & low (close) in 2011 10.655 ( 55% confidence )

Created by herb on 2011-12-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by herb on 2012-01-02.

The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update). ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-06-01.

Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.

I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Seth Kurtenbach will approve my comment. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

brazil84 will approve my comment. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

I will add cards to more than one Anki deck today. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

I will add cards to an Anki deck today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

I will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

I will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

I will do the paperwork for the first 5 DBMS exercises today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.

Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.

The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.

I will finish Seneca 84 tonight ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-28.

I will finish the 3rd book of Roman Slavery (articles) tonight ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged right by Codyz on 2011-11-28.

I will finish ai-class unit 13 today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by yurifury on 2011-11-27; known on 2011-11-28; judged right by yurifury on 2011-11-27.

Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by TheEIT on 2013-05-12.

I will not stick with SWTOR after the beta. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by baslisks on 2011-11-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by baslisks on 2011-12-05.

My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

We will get through the second unit of this week's AI class lectures tomorrow ( 30% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

We will get through the first unit of this week's AI class lectures ( 70% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

On time: at the door by 8am tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

Dark Souls: Capra Demon dead by tonight ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

Dark Souls: Hellkite Dragon dead by tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.

baslisks will join #lesswrong any time in December ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2011-12-02.

Succeed on the TOVP tender ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.

Finish this tender this afternoon ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-11-24; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-24.

By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.

The man in the screen cap is Yoshiyuki Tomino ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.

A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

Mangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of Fractale) will be publishing a regular series within a year. ( 40% confidence; 77 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-23.

A lot of people will be surprised by a new ILS Mortgage and a new Investment for Pension Funds when it happens before June 2012. This will stop people from worrying about interest and inflation rates as far as these new products are concerned. ( 99% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by EdwardCDIngram on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-04.

Amazon will dominate Android appstores —Marco Arment ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by kpreid on 2013-11-23.

I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.

By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.

Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.

Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.

Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.

I will miss the 3:13pm bus ( 30% confidence )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22.

Dark Souls patch will introduce more bugs that will require another patch ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by yurifury on 2011-12-11.

Dark Souls patch will be out within two weeks. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by yurifury on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-12-06; judged right by yurifury on 2011-11-22.

Dark Souls patch will be out within a week. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by yurifury on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-11-28; judged right by yurifury on 2011-11-22.

I will get a HD for at least two of my units, and only one credit. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by ultramarinefoil on 2011-12-04.

I will have “mind-fog” when I wake up in 8 hours. ( 49% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-22.

WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

Correctly answer midterm question 15 ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 14 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 13 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 12 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 11 ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions