PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will get a BSNL broadband connection this week. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-16; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-20.

The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.

The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.

Pace will defeat Torres at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Tibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Le will defeat Silva at UFC 139. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

McDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Weidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Kampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Faber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Brown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

I will win in WordFeud against toffe ( 90% confidence )

Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by fnedrik on 2011-11-18.

We will get a bid for 1.9 or better today ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-15; judged wrong by fnedrik on 2011-11-16.

I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.

I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 3 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-19. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

{__slots__} will be added to NamedConstant before it is first merged to trunk ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04.

I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.

The recent deployment will have fixed the domain name in Prediction Book emails ( 95% confidence; 10 comments )

Created by Wes on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-14; judged right by Wes on 2011-11-14.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 mostly right (30/40) ( 99% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 right (yes/no on a grid of 40 squares testing if you following a simple policy correctly) ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework 5.2 mostly right (3 out of 4 rows completely right) ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.2 right. (12/12 – there are four rows of 3 answers each) ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 mostly correct: 3/4 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 correct 4/4 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.

“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.

Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.

My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.

For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-21.

Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.

By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.

Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.

The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

In 2012, Democrats will make gains in both the House and Senate, but will fail to wrest control of the Senate from the GOP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.

Obama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight's Republican debate. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-13.

I won't sleep tonight ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.

TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.

I will have the Stanford ai-class anki deck up-to-date by the start of the midterm exams. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-19.

MC will order modafinil within one month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.

YF will order modafinil within a month. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-24.

By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by ARFisk on 2016-11-13.

Labour to win next Australian federal election ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by procran on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by procran on 2013-12-02.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Jack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Steam or Origin will offer a cloud based gaming solution ala onlive.com by 2015. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.

At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-14.

“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

AZEALIA BANKS – 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by fork on 2012-05-02.

By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this month. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-05.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.

By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.

A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-05.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Barack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.

By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.

China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.

I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.

I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.

Statistics

Recent Predictions