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The Singularity will occur by 2050.

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01

  • michaelanissimov estimated 50% on 2011-11-15
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2011-11-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 4% and said “Does this mean an unambiguous Singularity? Some versions of a Singularity are more clear cut when they happen than others (e.g. Kurzweil is much less clear cut than an intelligence explosion). ” on 2011-11-15
  • JoshuaZ said “Relevant related prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4140” on 2011-11-15
  • JoshuaZ said “Er I think the date on this is also wrong. ” on 2011-11-15
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-11-15
  • michaelanissimov changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-15” on 2011-11-15
  • gwern estimated 55% and said “fixed date for you. related prediction: not by 2040: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/473” on 2011-11-15
  • lavalamp estimated 40% on 2011-11-15
  • Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-11-16
  • fork estimated 5% on 2011-11-16
  • Grognor estimated 41% and said “betting against is safer because there are singularity scenarios where everyone dies and thus no calibration gets recorded.” on 2011-11-16
  • Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Misread as ‘will not occur.’” on 2011-11-16
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, given your comment on the 2040 Singularity prediction, you seem to have an extremely high confidence for a Singularity in the 2040-2050 range. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “65% to be precise. Seems about right to me. ” on 2011-11-17
  • faws estimated 36% on 2011-11-18
  • kilobug estimated 25% on 2011-11-18
  • AakashJain estimated 5% on 2011-11-19
  • TrE estimated 8% on 2011-11-20
  • Pablo estimated 30% on 2012-10-02
  • Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-01-03
  • Malgidus estimated 60% and said “Self-recursive intelligence explosion. Additonal % chance every year after.” on 2013-03-27
  • halfwit estimated 60% on 2013-06-10
  • Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-06-16
  • waveman estimated 45% and said “My estimate is low because of the likelihood of societal collapse before the singularity happens. ” on 2014-01-15
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 27% on 2015-12-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 100% on 2016-04-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 48% on 2018-12-20
  • scatterspace estimated 5% on 2021-06-14
  • michaelchen estimated 50% on 2022-02-22