PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.

By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01.

Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-15; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

We will not be finished eating by 8:15 PM. ( 80% confidence )

Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-14; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-15.

The Texas Rangers will win the ALCS ( 90% confidence )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-13; known on 2011-10-20; judged right by Codyz on 2011-10-16.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2012 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2011 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol's shutdown will leave the knols' content publicly accessible at some URL ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-23.

Firefox's latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by stephenh on 2012-12-13.

The Pirate Party of Brazil will not be officially registered until the end of 2013. ( 85% confidence )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-13.

The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.

Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android “Jelly Bean” (or whatever the major version after “Ice Cream Sandwich” is called) ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-27.

Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-14.

My Modalert will arrive tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

My Modalert will arrive today. ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

Season 2 of Panty & Stocking With Garterbelt will be announced. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-10-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-12.

BMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-04.

I will score 50% or higher on my CPSC 121 midterm ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by joke-away on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-19; judged right by joke-away on 2011-10-19.

Critical Windows updates will be released today (UTC) ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11.

Tristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move. ( 65% confidence )

Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-12.

The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.

“Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-06-09.

The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.

The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

A PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.

The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.

As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

In Sanderson's “Allow of Law” it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist. ( 8% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

No one will join this prediction until friday. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.

I will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.

I will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 15% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-17.

I will enter at least 10 Boy Charlton Biathlons this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

I will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-12-31.

By 1st July 2012, I will have submitted at least 2 technical papers to peer-reviewed journals. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-01.

By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-05.

CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.

I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2013-12-17.

By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.

Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.

The webcomic Angels 2200 will have a new full page update before the end of October. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-11-01.

“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.

Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.

Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.

“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in 1.0 or 2.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 4.0 ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 3.0 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from Girlfriend of Steel ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Statistics

Recent Predictions