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North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01

  • gwern estimated 75% on 2011-12-03
  • gwern said “http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=12154 “If you don’t agree, consider the following example: Both Afghanistan and North Korea are extremely poor. Which country do you think is more likely to be rich in 2061, fifty years from today?”” on 2011-12-03
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “WP sez Afghanistan: $15B PPP GDP (as inflated by international spending); North Korea: est $40B PPP GDP” on 2011-12-03
  • Konkvistador estimated 95% on 2011-12-03
  • JoshuaZ said “How will we judge if one doesn’t exist at that time? Korean unification does’t seem that unlikely given 50 years…” on 2011-12-03
  • gwern said “even if unified, there’s always going to be a ‘north’ sense of korea – the culture and history is too deep. ‘region’, prefecture, nation, doesn’t really matter – the square miles are still there” on 2011-12-03
  • Anubhav said “Third Impact, non-existence of nations, large-scale population shifts, almost no physical humans… The possibilities are endless. Prediction seems to depend on status quo bias. ” on 2011-12-04
  • gwern said “or the observation that in most economic climates koreans will beat afghanistanis without a second thought” on 2011-12-04
  • Anubhav said “The email notification system is broken. Anyway, note that you’re assuming that either country even exists in any sense whatsoever, that we’re not in a post-scarcity economy where such distinctions are meaningless, that <cotd>” on 2011-12-04
  • Anubhav said “wealth in 2061 can be quantified the same way modern wealth is, etc. We didn’t even have the concept of GDP 100 years ago, (sez WP) I doubt economic measures in 2061 will be the ones we’re using now. ” on 2011-12-04
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 70% on 2011-12-06
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2011-12-12
  • faws estimated 63% and said “I would ascribe a much higher probability to the actual thesis, that if exactly one of those two nations qualifies as rich (e. g. defined as third quartile of PPP GDP per head or higher) it will be North Korea. ” on 2011-12-17
  • Athrelon estimated 80% on 2012-09-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-12-19