Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.

“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.

No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2100-01-01.

I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one). ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2100-01-01.

An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100. ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-16; known on 2100-01-01.

“The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.” Long-Bets I disagree. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2100-03-20.

We will never have a colony on mars larger than 25 people without launch costs going below $250/kg ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-21; known on 2100-06-01.

The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.

AI goes FOOM until 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.

If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

“We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)” ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2101-01-01.

Certain friend will kill themselves this century ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01; known on 2101-01-01.

At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

“We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time” ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-26; known on 2101-01-02.

Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-02.

“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

Gavin Christopher Newsom becomes POTUS (or equivalent title to whatever union california is part of) ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-28; known on 2104-03-01.

“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century ( 60% confidence )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2110-01-01.

Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future! ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2111-04-20.

I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.

“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.

“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.