Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.

In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.

A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.

Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2055-01-01.

By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.

Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2056-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.

Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.

By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01.

William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2016-07-08; known on 2056-08-07.

The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by VK7K7vg on 2016-12-18; known on 2056-12-18.

“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the “fuel of choice” for personal transportation for the next 50 years” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2056-12-31.

arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2056-12-31.

A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.

'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.

Lab grown meat will become the primary source of global meat production by 2060 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jewstinbeac on 2022-09-02; known on 2060-01-01.

SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 ( 75% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-09; known on 2060-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tristan on 2013-08-06; known on 2060-01-01.

Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.

User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.

“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.

By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.

“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.

In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-19; known on 2061-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

Genetic engineering to produce someone with an IQ over 200 by 2060 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2061-01-01.

By 2060 under assumptions of ETH and that PH does not collapse, and PH != PSPACE != EXP, proven that factoring in Beta_P^GI / poly or that factoring in Beta_P^MSCP. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.

“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.

Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.

North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.

Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.

Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.