Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. —Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF). ( 100% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2050-12-25.

By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.

They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.

“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.

The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.

P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.

By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.

'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2051-01-01.

Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.

A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.

> 100 fatalities per 1e12 revenue passenger kilometres on commercial airliners over 2040-2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2021-01-02; known on 2051-01-01.

Will China officially launch a coordinated campaign to discourage meat-eating (either through coercion or incentives) by 2050? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2051-01-01.

China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, marine cloud brightening is used ( 30% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used ( 20% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture) ( 25% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2051-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.

Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.

US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.

US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.

At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.

Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.

More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.

By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.

Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.

Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.

Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.

R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.

In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.

A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.

'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.