“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/70” on 2010-07-30
• dakyne estimated 1% and said “Moore’s Law has already terminated, if you use processor speed as a metric.” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “Moore’s law isn’t about processor speed, though. It’s about how many transistors you get for a buck.” on 2010-07-30
• dakyne said “http://news.techworld.com/operating-systems/3477/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore/There are a few loose interpretations: density and price/performance.” on 2010-07-30
• gwern estimated 5% and said ““It can’t continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.” not that has ended already” on 2010-07-31
• dakyne said “that’s why I said 99% against, because if it already happened it would be 100%. There are several interpretations of Moore’s Law-hence the 1%.” on 2010-07-31
• Traubert   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-11.
• Traubert   judged this prediction right on 2010-08-11.
• Traubert   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-11.
• Traubert   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-08-11.
• Traubert estimated 5% on 2010-08-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-09-02
• Grognor estimated 4% on 2011-12-06
• btrettel estimated 25% and said “My estimate is for number of transistors (or their equivalent) in a processor.” on 2015-04-26
• InquilineKea estimated 10% on 2015-07-11
• btrettel estimated 3% on 2016-09-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “Kurzweil’s law however will continue to deliver. DNA processing/quantum computing are really close to prime time.” on 2016-09-03
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-14